Tropical and plantation crops include important crops for food security and alternative energy resources. Even so, there are few studies on the impact of climate change on diseases of these crops. Findings from previous studies concerning some climate-change effects on diseases of coffee, sugarcane, eucalyptus, cassava, citrus, banana, pineapple, cashew, coconut and papaya have been summarized to provide a context. By reviewing available methods to evaluate the impact of climate change on diseases of tropical and plantation crops, we present trends for some diseases and their management strategies, identify critical gaps in knowledge, and suggest experimental and analytical approaches to advance knowledge. As the projected climate conditions will probably vary greatly in the future from continent to continent and from developed to developing countries, studies must be conducted under tropical regions considering their specific environmental conditions. Multifactor studies under realistic field situations, such as free air CO 2 enrichment with increasing CO 2 and O 3 concentrations incorporating spectral reflectance measures in situ for realistic assessment of plant growth, are a way forward. Effects of a changing climate on chemical and biological controls are discussed in the context of changing global outlook on environmental demands for the future.

Human activities are altering greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and causing global climate change. In the near future, there will certainly be changes in the Brazilian phytosanitary scenario attributed to global climate change. The impacts of climate change can be positive, negative or neutral, since these changes can decrease, increase or have no impact on diseases, depending on each region or period. These impacts will also be observed on plants and other organisms as well as on other agroecosystem components. However, these impacts are not easily determined, and consequently, specialists from several areas must go beyond their disciplinary boundaries and placing the climate change impacts in a broader context. This review focuses on the discussion of different aspects related to the effects of climate change on plant diseases. On the geographical and temporal distribution of diseases, a historical context is presented and recent studies using data of forecast models of future climate associated with disease simulation models are discussed in order to predict the distribution in future climate scenarios. Predicted future disease scenarios for some crops in Brazil are shown. On the effects of increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 and other gases, important aspects are discussed of how diseases change under altered atmospheric gases conditions in the future. The consequences of these changes on the chemical and biological control of plant diseases are also discussed. Key words: CO 2 , global climate change, global warming, spatial analysis, control MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS E DOENÇAS DE PLANTASRESUMO: As atividades antrópicas estão alterando as concentrações de gases de efeito estufa da atmosfera e causando mudanças no clima do planeta. Certamente, num futuro próximo, devido às mudanças climáticas globais, ocorrerão modificações no cenário fitossanitário brasileiro. Os impactos podem ser positivos, negativos ou neutros, pois as mudanças podem diminuir, aumentar ou não ter efeito sobre as doenças, em cada região ou época. Esses impactos também serão observados sobre as plantas e outros organismos, além de outros componentes do agroecossistema. Porém, esses impactos não são facilmente determinados e, desta forma, os especialistas das diferentes áreas precisam ir além de suas disciplinas e abordar os impactos das mudanças climáticas em um contexto mais amplo. Nessa revisão são discutidos os aspectos relacionados com os efeitos das mudanças climáticas sobre as doenças de plantas. Na distribuição geográfica e temporal das doenças, um contexto histórico é apresentado, incluindo estudos recentes utilizando dados de modelos de previsão do clima futuro associados com modelos de simulação da doença a fim de predizer a distribuição nos cenários climáticos futuros. Também são apresentados os cenários futuros de previsão de doenças de algumas culturas no Brasil. Sobre os efeitos do aumento da concentração de CO 2 atmosférico e outros gases são discutidos importantes aspectos do comportamento das doe...

-The objective of this work was to assess the potential impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of coffee nematodes (races of Meloidogyne incognita) and leaf miner (Leucoptera coffeella), using a Geographic Information System. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on pest infestations and disease epidemics in crops is needed as a basis for revising management practices to minimize crop losses as climatic conditions shift. Future scenarios focused on the decades of the 2020's, 2050's, and 2080's (scenarios A2 and B2) were obtained from five General Circulation Models available on Data Distribution Centre from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geographic distribution maps were prepared using models to predict the number of generations of the nematodes and leaf miner. Maps obtained in scenario A2 allowed prediction of an increased infestation of the nematode and of the pest, due to greater number of generations per month, than occurred under the climatological normal from . The number of generations also increased in the B2 scenario, but was lower than in the A2 scenario for both organisms.

O conhecimento dos prováveis impactos das mudanças climáticas globais sobre a ocorrência de doenças de plantas é de grande importância para o setor agrícola, pois permite a elaboração de estratégias de controle. O presente trabalho teve por finalidade estudar os possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a sigatoka-negra da bananeira, por meio da elaboração de mapas de distribuição da doença confeccionados a partir dos cenários disponibilizados pelo IPCC. Os mapas mostraram que haverá redução da área favorável à doença no país. Tal redução será gradativa para as décadas de 2020, 2050 e 2080 e de forma mais acentuada no cenário A2 que no B2. Apesar disso, extensas áreas ainda continuarão favoráveis à ocorrência da doença, especialmente no período de novembro a abril.

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great i m p o rt a n c e f or a gr i c u l t u re s i n c e i t a l lo ws t h e e va lu a t i o n of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work a i m e d t o s i m u la t e f u t u re s c e n a ri o s of c off ee r u s t ( H e m i l e i a vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3. 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of lat itude and longitude for ten produ cing stat es in Bra zil. The c li m at e vari ab les u s ed were ma xim um an d m in i mu m m on t hly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from . A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.The Fourth Assessment Report (Working Group I) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide has increased as a result of human activities since 1750 and exceeds the pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years (11). As a result, the global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.2 °C per decade in the last three decades and 0.8 °C in the past century (9). The effects would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.IPCC (10) published a set of emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) designed to serve as a basis for assessment of climate change (from 1990 to 2100). Each scenario represents a specific quantitative interpretation of one of four storylines (A1, A2, B1, and B2). Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments. General Circulation Models (GCM), run using these emission scenarios, have been developed to assess the potential impacts of global climate change.Assessment of climate change impacts on plant diseases is receiving increasing attention as adaptation strategies can come only from improved knowledge (6). Bergot et al. (2) have used a GCM to predict a range expansion of Phytophthora cinnamomi, over 100 years, by modeling the temperature of phloem in infected trees to evaluate overwintering probabilities. In order to assess the impacts of climate change Palavras-chave adicionais: Coffea arabica, ferrugem do cafeeiro, cenários futuros, aquecimento global. RESUMOA análise de risco das mudanças climáticas globais sobre doenças de plantas é de grande importância para o setor agrícola, pois permite a avaliação de estratégias de manej o p a ra m i n i mi za r prej u ízos futuros. O presente trabalho teve por objetiv...