Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Abstract

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great i m p o rt a n c e f or a gr i c u l t u re s i n c e i t a l lo ws t h e e va lu a t i o n of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work a i m e d t o s i m u la t e f u t u re s c e n a ri o s of c off ee r u s t ( H e m i l e i a vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3. 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of lat itude and longitude for ten produ cing stat es in Bra zil. The c li m at e vari ab les u s ed were ma xim um an d m in i mu m m on t hly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from . A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.The Fourth Assessment Report (Working Group I) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated that the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide has increased as a result of human activities since 1750 and exceeds the pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years (11). As a result, the global surface temperature has increased approximately 0.2 °C per decade in the last three decades and 0.8 °C in the past century (9). The effects would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.IPCC (10) published a set of emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) designed to serve as a basis for assessment of climate change (from 1990 to 2100). Each scenario represents a specific quantitative interpretation of one of four storylines (A1, A2, B1, and B2). Each storyline represents different demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments. General Circulation Models (GCM), run using these emission scenarios, have been developed to assess the potential impacts of global climate change.Assessment of climate change impacts on plant diseases is receiving increasing attention as adaptation strategies can come only from improved knowledge (6). Bergot et al. (2) have used a GCM to predict a range expansion of Phytophthora cinnamomi, over 100 years, by modeling the temperature of phloem in infected trees to evaluate overwintering probabilities. In order to assess the impacts of climate change Palavras-chave adicionais: Coffea arabica, ferrugem do cafeeiro, cenários futuros, aquecimento global. RESUMOA análise de risco das mudanças climáticas globais sobre doenças de plantas é de grande importância para o setor agrícola, pois permite a avaliação de estratégias de manej o p a ra m i n i mi za r prej u ízos futuros. O presente trabalho teve por objetiv...

The coffee rust crises in Colombia and Central America (2008–2013): impacts, plausible causes and proposed solutions

“…This was attributed to increased minimum temperatures during the winter. Ghini et al (2011) showed a trend towards a reduction in the duration of the latency period of the disease in the future, and, hence, to an increase in epidemic intensity, due to increased temperatures. Coffee rust is not the only pest to fear.…”

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

“…Plant health is predicted to generally suffer under climate change through a variety of mechanisms, from accelerated pathogen evolution and shorter incubation periods to enhanced abiotic stress due to mismatches between ecosystems and their climate and the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events (Chakraborty and Datta 2003;Chakraborty 2005;Ghini et al 2011b;Sutherst et al 2011). Drought is expected to lead to increased frequency of tree pathogens, mainly through indirect effects on host physiology (Desprez- Loustau et al 2006).…”

Impacto do aumento da concentração atmosférica de dióxido de carbono sobre a ferrugem e o crescimento do cafeeiro

“…Simulações com temperaturas máximas e mínimas para os cenários futuros preveem a diminuição do período de incubação para a ferrugem do cafeeiro (Ghini et al, 2011) e, portanto, epidemias mais severas, tendência que pode ser neutralizada pelo efeito de redução da doença, em razão do aumento da concentração de CO 2 , observado no presente trabalho. Considerandose a favorabilidade térmica e hídrica para a ocorrência da ferrugem do cafeeiro, há também a previsão de um decréscimo de épocas favoráveis à doença, em consequência do aumento da temperatura e diminuição da umidade relativa do ar (Pozza & Alves, 2008). )…”