Causes of Regional Change—Land Cover

Gaillard, Marie-José; Kleinen, Thomas; Samuelsson, Patrick; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Bergh, Johan; Kaplan, Jed O.; Poska, Anneli; Sandström, Camilla; Strandberg, Gustav; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Wramneby, Anna

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_25

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 122 publications

(166 reference statements)

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“…Krug et al (2015) concluded that there were regional differences in how the vulnerability and productivity of forestry systems were affected by climate change, with the southern and eastern parts of the Baltic Sea region likely to experience reduced production and the northern and western parts increased production. Gaillard et al (2015) found no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea region since 1850 could have been a major cause of the observed climate warming.…”

Section: Previous Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 86%

“…In the second BACC report (BACC II Author Team, 2015), climate effects on terrestrial ecosystems were less in focus, with a section related to forests and natural vegetation in the chapter on environmental impacts on coastal ecosystems, birds and forests (Niemelä et al, 2015) and as part of the chapter on socioeconomic impacts on forestry and agriculture (Krug et al, 2015). On the other hand, the second BACC report also considered anthropogenic land-cover changes as a driver of regional climate change (Gaillard et al, 2015). Niemelä et al (2015) concluded that the observed positive effects of climate change on forest growth would continue, in particular for boreal forest stands that benefitted more than temperate forest stands.…”

Section: Previous Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bright surfaces like agricultural fields reflect more energy than dark surfaces, like forests and open waters. Thus, the type of land cover may affect regional warming, but its relative contribution is disputed (Gaillard et al, 2015;Strandberg and Kjellström, 2019). Increasing droughts with lower river flow at certain times of the year may influence water management and shipping in regulated rivers, especially in the southern catchment basins.…”

Section: Interactions Of Climate With Other Anthropogenic Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Meier

Kniebusch

Dieterich

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarized and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focusses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in paleo-, historical and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments remain still valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, e.g. for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution and new scenario simulations with improved models, e.g. for glaciers, lake ice and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before, because more models can be included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth System have been studied and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication and climate change. New data sets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal time scales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first paleoclimate simulations regionalized for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics is dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterized by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern sub-basins and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern sub-basins.

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Section: Previous Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: Previous Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Interactions Of Climate With Other Anthropogenic Driversmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Meier

Kniebusch

Dieterich

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…20–30% or more), the REVEALS results have major consequences on our understanding of the anthropogenic impact on land cover (landscape openness/deforestation in particular) and, in turn, on the possible effects of anthropogenic land‐use change on climate (e.g. Strandberg et al ., ; Gaillard et al ., , in press).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pollen‐based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant‐functional types and land‐cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

Trondman

Gaillard

Mazier

et al. 2014

Global Change Biology

185

204

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We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in northwestern Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene [around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (BP)] at a 1° 9 1° spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types [evergreen trees, Correspondence: A.-K. Trondman, tel. + 46 (0)480 44 61 98, fax + 46 (0)480 44 73 40, Global Change Biology summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k BP and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k BP is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources.

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“…Although landscape management is expected to play a large role in the mitigation of climate warming in the future (Nabuurs et al, 2022), the local impact of such mitigation measures on the regional climate and the net effect of both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects, in the past as well as today, are still not fully understood or known (e.g. Gaillard et al, 2015). The relative importance of LULCC as a climate forcing factor may be large, particularly in lowemission scenarios (van Vuuren et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions

Strandberg¹,

Chen²,

Fyfe³

et al. 2023

Clim. Past

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Abstract. This paper studies the impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago (2.5 ka), a period of rapid transitions across the European landscape. One global climate model was used to force two regional climate models (RCMs). The RCMs used two land cover descriptions. The first was from a dynamical vegetation model representing potential land cover, and the second was from a land cover description reconstructed from pollen data by statistical interpolation. The two different land covers enable us to study the impact of land cover on climate conditions. Since the difference in landscape openness between potential and reconstructed land cover is mostly due to LULCC, this can be taken as a measure of early anthropogenic effects on climate. Since the sensitivity to LULCC is dependent on the choice of climate model, we also use two RCMs. The results show that the simulated 2.5 ka climate was warmer than the simulated pre-industrial (PI, 1850 CE) climate. The largest differences are seen in northern Europe, where the 2.5 ka climate is 2–4 ∘C warmer than the PI period. In summer, the difference between the simulated 2.5 ka and PI climates is smaller (0–3 ∘C), with the smallest differences in southern Europe. Differences in seasonal precipitation are mostly within ±10 %. In parts of northern Europe, the 2.5 ka climate is up to 30 % wetter in winter than that of the PI climate. In summer there is a tendency for the 2.5 ka climate to be drier than the PI climate in the Mediterranean region. The results also suggest that LULCC at 2.5 ka impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Simulations including reconstructed LULCC (i.e. those using pollen-derived land cover descriptions) give up to 1 ∘C higher temperature in parts of northern Europe in winter and up to 1.5 ∘C warmer in southern Europe in summer than simulations with potential land cover. Although the results are model dependent, the relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic land cover changes that had occurred during the Neolithic and Bronze Age could have affected the European climate by 2.5 ka.

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Causes of Regional Change—Land Cover

Cited by 7 publications

References 122 publications

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Region: A Summary

Pollen‐based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant‐functional types and land‐cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

Did the Bronze Age deforestation of Europe affect its climate? A regional climate model study using pollen-based land cover reconstructions

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