What is already known: Conventional score such as Morse fall scales was developed for fall risk assessment, however it has low accuracy and difficulty in practical implementation.Previous machine learning studies have limitation in its explainability for clinicians and nurses, which is also called as the black box problem. Another challenge is that previous models have not been well-prepared for Electronic Medical Records integration for practical application.What is new in the current study:We developed the interpretable Machine learning model for the prediction of falls by integrating into EMR system.
ABSTRACT(1) Background: Falls are one of the most frequently occurring adverse events among hospitalized patients. The Morse fall scales, which have been widely used for fall risk assessment, has two limitations: low specificity and difficulty in practical implementation.The aim of this study was to develop and validate an interpretable machine learning (ML) model for the prediction of falls, which would be integrated in an electronic medical record system (EMR)(2) Methods: This is a retrospective study from a tertiary teaching hospital in Seoul, Korea.Data were collected from January 2018 to March 2020. Based on literatures, known 83 predictors were grouped into seven categories. Interpretable fall event prediction models were developed using multiple machine learning models including gradient boosting and Shapley values.(3) Results: Overall, 191,778 cases with 272 fall events (0.1%) were included for the analysis. With the validation cohort of 2020, the area under the receiver operating curve of the gradient boosting model was 0.817 (95% confidence interval, 0.720 -0.904) which showed better performance than random forest, logistic regression, artificial neural net, and conventional Morse fall score (0.80, 0.80, 0.74, and 0.65, respectively). The model's interpretability was enhanced in both population level and patient level. The algorithm was later integrated in to the current EMR.(4) Conclusion: We developed an interpretable ML prediction model for inpatient fall events using EMR integration formats.