Challenges in predicting the outcome of competition based on climate change-induced phenological and body size shifts

Rollins, Hilary B.; Benard, Michael F.

doi:10.1007/s00442-020-04705-w

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…Therefore, should these trends continue, developing godwit chicks may face increasingly untenable conditions as food becomes both less abundant and poorer in quality (i.e., smaller size). More broadly, our results suggest that resource timing, quality, and quantity can act as concomitant drivers of phenological mismatches (Rollins and Benard 2020), and that their effects may be most apparent when placed in the context of the consumer life cycle (Yang et al 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching

Wilde

Simmons

Swift

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Climate change has caused shifts in seasonally recurring biological events and the temporal decoupling of consumer-resource pairs – i.e., phenological mismatching. Despite the hypothetical risk mismatching poses to consumers, they do not invariably lead to individual- or population-level effects. This may stem from how mismatches are typically defined, e.g., an individual or population is ‘matched’ or ‘mismatched’ based on the degree of asynchrony with a resource pulse. However, because both resource availability and consumer demands change over time, this categorical definition can obscure within- or among-individual fitness effects. We therefore developed models to identify the effects of resource characteristics on individual- and population-level processes and determine how the strength of these effects change throughout a consumer’s life. We then measured the effects of resource characteristics on the growth, daily survival, and fledging rates of Hudsonian godwit (Limosa haemastica) chicks hatched near Beluga River, Alaska. At the individual-level, chick growth and survival improved following periods of higher invertebrate abundance but were increasingly dependent on the availability of larger prey as chicks aged. At the population level, seasonal fledging rates were best explained by a model including age-structured consumer demand. Our study suggests that modelling the effects of mismatching as a disrupted interaction between consumers and their resources provides a biological mechanism for how mismatching occurs and clarifies when it matters to individuals and populations. Given the variable responses to mismatching across consumer populations, such tools for predicting how populations may respond under future climatic conditions will be invaluable.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 78%

The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching

Wilde

Simmons

Swift

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Araújo & Luoto, 2007; Grether et al, 2013; Price & Kirkpatrick, 2009; Sexton et al, 2009; Urban et al, 2012). The combination of factors is typically not accounted for in population projections, but may be particularly important as interactions between abiotic and biotic factors may change predictions of community responses (Rollins & Benard, 2020). The rate of change in a species range may lag behind climate changes (Forero‐Medina et al, 2011) and may be exacerbated by biotic interactions (Cahill et al, 2014; Huey et al, 2012; Merrill et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Abiotic and biotic factors reduce the viability of a high‐elevation salamander in its native range

Grant

DiRenzo

Brand

2023

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Amphibian populations are undergoing worldwide declines, and high‐elevation, range‐restricted amphibian species may be particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors. In particular, future climate change may have disproportional impacts to these ecosystems. Evaluating the combined effects of abiotic changes and biotic interactions simultaneously is important for forecasting the range of future outcomes. This information is necessary to aid conservation decision‐making. We use field data to estimate population demographic parameters for an exemplary high‐elevation amphibian species, the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander Plethodon shenandoah. These parameters were entered into a Markov projection model which we used to forecast the future population status of the Shenandoah salamander. We found that if the population maintains its current site colonization and persistence rates, it is at the risk of extinction that could be exacerbated by both climate and interspecific competition. Synthesis and applications. Managers have a fundamental objective directed by official policy of maintaining the species ‘for the foreseeable future’. Our evaluation of multiple hypotheses about population drivers reveals that extinction is projected for this species. Our analysis suggests that considering active management need not depend on resolving the uncertainty.

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“…Increased temperatures due to climate change have already dramatically affected populations, including population declines and shifts in distribution and phenology (Cohen et al, 2018; MacLean & Beissinger, 2017; Parmesan & Yohe, 2003; Root et al, 2003; Valladares et al, 2014; Visser, 2008; Walther et al, 2002). Predicting population consequences of warming is complicated by interactive effects across organismal, population, and community levels, including physiological temperature thresholds and optimal ranges, plasticity, dispersal, competition, and changes in species interactions (Both et al, 2009; McCauley et al, 2018; Rollins & Benard, 2020; Urban et al, 2014; Valladares et al, 2014; Visser, 2008). Although comparative studies have identified patterns in response to climate change, experimental tests of responses to warming are necessary to clarify the underlying mechanisms of response and their consequences (Sheridan & Bickford, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experimental warming reduces body mass but not reproductive investment

Lackey

Whiteman

2022

Ecology

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Climate change has already had wide‐ranging effects on populations, including shifts in species' ranges, phenology, and body size. Whereas some common patterns have emerged, the direction and magnitude of responses vary extensively among populations as well as across life stages within populations. Understanding the consequences of climate change and predicting future responses at the population level require experimental tests of how warmer temperatures affect life history traits, including growth rate, development time, and reproductive output. Here, we tested how experimental warming affected life history from larval development and survival to adult reproductive maturity and investment in mole salamanders, Ambystoma talpoideum. We found that a small temperature increase (~1°C) experienced during larval development had complex consequences: density‐dependent effects on growth and body mass, density‐independent effects on fat storage, and no effects on survival and reproductive investment. Although warming reduced growth rates, size at maturity, and fat storage, salamanders in both warmed and control conditions had similar survival and reproductive investment in their first year. However, costs of smaller body size and lower fat reserves may limit overwintering survival and/or future reproduction. Our study highlights the differential effects of warming across life history traits and multifaceted population responses to climate change. This work motivates future studies to examine variation in response to climate change across life stages and life history traits.

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Challenges in predicting the outcome of competition based on climate change-induced phenological and body size shifts

Cited by 6 publications

References 72 publications

The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching

The anatomy of a phenological mismatch: interacting consumer demand and resource characteristics determine the consequences of mismatching

Abiotic and biotic factors reduce the viability of a high‐elevation salamander in its native range

Experimental warming reduces body mass but not reproductive investment

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