The use of taxon substitutes for extinct or endangered species is a controversial conservation measure. We use the example of the endangered California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense; CTS), which is being replaced by hybrids with the invasive barred tiger salamander (Ambystoma mavortium), to illustrate a strategy for evaluating taxon substitutes based on their position in a multivariate community space. Approximately one-quarter of CTS's range is currently occupied by "full hybrids" with 70% nonnative genes, while another one-quarter is occupied by "superinvasives" where a specific set of 3/68 genes comprising 4% of the surveyed genome is nonnative. Based on previous surveys of natural CTS breeding ponds, we stocked experimental mesocosms with field-verified, realistic densities of tiger salamander larvae and their prey, and used these mesocosms to evaluate ecological equivalency between pure CTS, full hybrids, and superinvasives in experimental pond communities. We also included a fourth treatment with no salamanders present to evaluate the community effects of eliminating Ambystoma larvae altogether. We found that pure CTS and superinvasive larvae were ecologically equivalent, because their positions in the multivariate community space were statistically indistinguishable and they did not differ significantly along any univariate community axes. Full hybrids were ecologically similar, but not equivalent, to the other two genotypes, and the no-Ambystoma treatment was by far the most divergent. We conclude that, at least for the larval stage, superinvasives are adequate taxon substitutes for pure CTS and should probably be afforded protection under the Endangered Species Act. The proper conservation status for full hybrids remains debatable.

Information exchange (or signaling) between plants following herbivore damage has recently been shown to affect plant responses to herbivory in relatively simple natural systems. In a large, manipulative field study using three annual plant species (Achyrachaena mollis, Lupinus nanus, and Sinapis arvensis), we tested whether experimental damage to a neighboring conspecific affected a plant's lifetime fitness and interactions with herbivores. By manipulating relatedness between plants, we assessed whether genetic relatedness of neighboring individuals influenced the outcome of having a damaged neighbor. Additionally, in laboratory feeding assays, we assessed whether damage to a neighboring plant specifically affected palatability to a generalist herbivore and, for S. arvensis, a specialist herbivore. Our study suggested a high level of contingency in the outcomes of plant signaling. For example, in the field, damaging a neighbor resulted in greater herbivory to A. mollis, but only when the damaged neighbor was a close relative. Similarly, in laboratory trials, the palatability of S. arvensis to a generalist herbivore increased after the plant was exposed to a damaged neighbor, while palatability to a specialist herbivore decreased. Across all species, damage to a neighbor resulted in decreased lifetime fitness, but only if neighbors were closely related. These results suggest that the outcomes of plant signaling within multi-species neighborhoods may be far more context-specific than has been previously shown. In particular, our study shows that herbivore interactions and signaling between plants are contingent on the genetic relationship between neighboring plants. Many factors affect the outcomes of plant signaling, and studies that clarify these factors will be necessary in order to assess the role of plant information exchange about herbivory in natural systems.

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While noise is an important factor in biology, biological processes often involve multiple noise sources, whose relative importance can be unclear. Here we develop tools that quantify the importance of noise sources in a network based on their contributions to variability in a quantity of interest. We generalize the edge importance measures proposed by Schmidt and Thomas [1] for first-order reaction networks whose steady-state variance is a linear combination of variance produced by each directed edge. We show that the same additive property extends to a general family of stochastic processes subject to a set of linearity assumptions, whether in discrete or continuous state or time. Our analysis applies to both expanding and contracting populations, as well as populations obeying a martingale (“wandering”) at long times. We show that the original Schmidt-Thomas edge importance measure is a special case of our more general measure, and is recovered when the model satisfies a conservation constraint

Integral projection models (IPMs) can estimate the population dynamics of species for which both discrete life stages and continuous variables influence demographic rates. Stochastic IPMs for imperiled species, in turn, can facilitate population viability analyses (PVAs) to guide conservation decision‐making. Biphasic amphibians are globally distributed, often highly imperiled, and ecologically well suited to the IPM approach. Herein, we present a stochastic size‐ and stage‐structured IPM for a biphasic amphibian, the U.S. federally threatened California tiger salamander (CTS) (Ambystoma californiense). This Bayesian model reveals that CTS population dynamics show greatest elasticity to changes in juvenile and metamorph growth and that populations are likely to experience rapid growth at low density. We integrated this IPM with climatic drivers of CTS demography to develop a PVA and examined CTS extinction risk under the primary threats of habitat loss and climate change. The PVA indicated that long‐term viability is possible with surprisingly high (20%–50%) terrestrial mortality but simultaneously identified likely minimum terrestrial buffer requirements of 600–1000 m while accounting for numerous parameter uncertainties through the Bayesian framework. These analyses underscore the value of stochastic and Bayesian IPMs for understanding both climate‐dependent taxa and those with cryptic life histories (e.g., biphasic amphibians) in service of ecological discovery and biodiversity conservation. In addition to providing guidance for CTS recovery, the contributed IPM and PVA supply a framework for applying these tools to investigations of ecologically similar species.