Change detection in hydrological records—a review of the methodology / Revue méthodologique de la détection de changements dans les chroniques hydrologiques

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Robson, A.

doi:10.1623/hysj.49.1.7.53993

Cited by 507 publications

(143 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In this study, Cumulative Sum Charts (CUSUM) and Bootstrapping [46] were used to detect existence of abrupt change in climate series, when the point of change in the theoretical distribution of the statistic of interest is not well-known or if no parametric method is available. Application of the CUSUM and Bootstrapping methods in climatological studies can be found in studies such like [8] and [47].…”

Section: Cumulative Sum Charts and Bootstrappingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Notably, climate change is likely to accelerate the global hydrological cycles, and a greater increase is expected in extreme rainfall as compared to the mean [7] and higher temperatures it will increase evaporation. In fact, temperature, evapo-transpiration and rainfall changes mainly influence the distribution of river flows and groundwater recharge [8]. With respect to climate variability and change impact on water resources, recent detected decreasing trend in water resources will continue in the future due to warming and rainfall declines [9] and a decrease in runoff is expected for 2050 [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

Okafor¹,

Jimoh²,

Larbi³

2017

ACS

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This study aimed to detect trends in the long-term hydro-climatic series using non-parametric methods. The annual and seasonal linear trends of rainfall, temperature, runoff, water level and evaporation were analysed for stations in downstream Kaduna River Basin during 1975-2014. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's estimator of slope procedures were adopted to identify if there exists an increasing or decreasing trend with their statistical significance at 95% level of confidence. The datasets were checked to account for auto-correlation prior to determining trends using Mann-Kendall test. The existence of abrupt changes was detected by means of Cumulative Sum Charts and Bootstrapping analysis. The results of study indicated increasing trends for seasonal and annual temperature and runoff series. Water level and evaporation revealed statistically decreasing trends both on annual and seasonal periods. However, for the period 1975 to 2014 no significant distinctive trend was observed for rainfall at the investigated stations. Change-points in time series were identified in all the investigated hydro-climatic records for the sub-basin. Generally, the detection of the trend for hydro-climatic variables by Mann-Kendall test conforms to Sen's test results. It is concluded that the basin is sensitive to climate variability and water stress impacts which will affect food security. So, it would be necessary to make adjustments in the adaptive water-use strategies being adopted at present in the catchment.

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Section: Cumulative Sum Charts and Bootstrappingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

Okafor¹,

Jimoh²,

Larbi³

2017

ACS

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“…The likelihood ratio Technique detects whether the means in two parts of a record are different (for an unknown time of change). The deviation from the means are calculated as [30] :…”

Section: Worsley Likelihood Ratio Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change in Jordan: A Comprehensive Examination Approach

Hamdi¹

2009

American J. of Environmental Sciences

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Problem statement: Jordan is experiencing harsh water shortage in different parts of the country due to high fluctuations in annual precipitation; the only source of water. In addition, heat waves are becoming more frequent in the region. Precipitation decrement and summer heat waves are being blamed on global warming. This study aimed to detect trends in weather parameters in Jordan. Approach: Data from six meteorological stations distributed around Jordan were analyzed using several parametric and nonparametric statistical approaches including Mann-Kendall, Linear Regression, Cusum, Rank Sum, Student's t-test, Rank Difference, Auto Correlation and SkewnessKurtosis Normality test. Results: The results indicated that there are no visible trends indicating an increase or decrease in the annual precipitation and maximum temperature. However, there are good to strong trends indicating that annual minimum temperature has increased in the last decade while annual temperature range has decreased. Conclusion: Decreasing temperature range proved that the Earth's atmosphere is becoming more efficient in trapping terrestrial infrared radiation, which is accountable for the global warming.

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“…Various parametric and nonparametric tests can be used to detect the changes in the time series (e.g., Kendall 1975;Maidment 1993;Esterby 1996;Rao and Hamed 2001;Kundzewicz and Robson 2004;Khaliq et al 2009;Bezak et al 2015a). The nonparametric χ 2 test (Haan 2002) was used in the study to test the hypothesis about a non-uniform rainfall pattern.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does it really rain more often on weekends than on weekdays? A case study for Slovenia

Plečko

Bezak

Rugelj

et al. 2018

AGS

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The article presents the results of precipitation and aerosol (PM10) data analyses in Slovenia. Analyses of rainfall data for some areas of Slovenia, such as the Ljubljana Basin, Zasavje, Šalek Valley, Celje Basin, and the coastal area, suggest that rain on the weekend is more frequent than on weekdays; nevertheless, these deviations are not statistically significant. A comparison of three separate decades showed that the pattern of weekly rainfall in the 21st century is different than that in the last period of the 20th century. The weekly cycle of PM10 for the considered stations is quite similar to that of some of the more contaminated regions of the world. Furthermore, the connection between PM10 and precipitation in most of the analyzed cases was statistically significant.

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Change detection in hydrological records—a review of the methodology / Revue méthodologique de la détection de changements dans les chroniques hydrologiques

Cited by 507 publications

References 16 publications

Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

Detecting Changes in Hydro-Climatic Variables during the Last Four Decades (1975-2014) on Downstream Kaduna River Catchment, Nigeria

Climate Change in Jordan: A Comprehensive Examination Approach

Does it really rain more often on weekends than on weekdays? A case study for Slovenia

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