Changes and drivers of afro-alpine forest ecosystem: future trajectories and management strategies in Bale eco-region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Introduction: Ecosystem change and respective conservation needs were at top priority areas in the globe especially at biodiversity hotspot zones and places of endemism like Bale eco-region. In this aspect, this study had tried to assess historical landscape changes of afro-alpine forest ecosystem with its respective driving forces and effectiveness of different institutional arrangements to protect this ecosystem. Methods: The study utilized satellite imagery from Landsat series starting from 1986 to 2016, ground truth data from GPS-based field survey, focus group discussions, and reconnaissance field survey. Historical landscape maps were prepared with a mix of supervised and unsupervised image classification methods. Future landscape change simulation was undertaken by using cellular automata modeling on Dynamic Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) software. Beyond areal change and transition of landscape elements, level of ecosystem fragmentation was assessed with FRAGSTAT software. Results: Results have shown that there is encroachment of human-induced land use patterns especially agriculture and grazing while closed canopy forest and woodland ecosystems have decreased in their extent. Simulation outputs for the coming three decades have also shown similar patterns with historical trends. Beyond changes in areal extent, landscape matrix analysis results indicated that there is increasing class and landscape level fragmentation both in its historical and future probable likelihoods. Effectiveness of different management strategies at different institutional arrangement were differ in their effectiveness that federal and regional government were not able to curve landscape change.

Class and landscape level habitat fragmentation analysis in the Bale mountains national park, southeastern Ethiopia

“…The landscape change in the BMNP negatively affected plant and wildlife communities in various level. With the intrusion of grazing and agriculture to forest and alpine ecosystems, anthropogenic land use types have cut ecosystem connectivity where it affects the ecological functioning ( Mezgebu and Workineh 2017 ). Habitat fragmentation, in the plant communities, most importantly affected the propagation of successional plant species than primary vegetation types ( Chazdon 2008 ).…”

“…Change statistics were calculated using ArcGIS 10.3 by comparing image values of one set of data with the corresponding value of the second set of data in each period. Percentage area change across the time of analysis was determined and landscape conversion rate was quantified ( Mezgebu and Workineh 2017 ) using Eqs. (1) and (2) , as follows: …”

“…Percentage area change across the time of analysis was determined and landscape conversion rate was quanti ed (Mezgebu and Workineh 2017), as follows:…”

High-resolution digital elevation models and orthomosaics generated from historical aerial photographs (since the 1960s) of the Bale Mountains in Ethiopia

“…Landscapes worldwide are increasingly affected by anthropogenic and natural factors such as land use and climate change (Bendix et al, 2021;He et al, 2021;Huggel et al, 2012;Peters et al, 2019;Slaymaker and Embleton-Hamann, 2018). Afroalpine ecosystems are particularly threatened due to population growth and human settlements, overgrazing, recurrent fire, deforestation, agricultural expansion (Gehrke and Linder, 2014;Gil-Romera et al, 2019;Kidane et al, 2012;Mezgebu and Workineh, 2017;Muhammed and Elias, 2021;Nyssen et al, 2014), and climate change (Colwell et al, 2008;Diaz and Bradley, 1997;Jacob et al, 2020;Kidane et al, 2022;Palomo, 2017). These impacts are of particular importance in afro-alpine ecosystems because they are hotspots of biodiversity and endemism (Gehrke and Linder, 2014;Merckx et al, 2015), and thus prominent for their ecological significance and considerable economic, recreational, aesthetic, and scientific value (Muhammed and Elias, 2021;Rahbek et al, 2019).…”

Predicting the current and future suitable habitats for endemic and endangered Ethiopian wolf using MaxEnt model

“…The Ethiopian wolf is the flagship species [5] and contributed to the conservation of the largest Afroalpine ecosystem in Africa [7]. The afro-alpine ecosystem is one of the most important ecological regions in sub-Saharan Africa [8]. As a top predator, the Ethiopian wolf control and regulate the function, integrity, and productivity of the ecosystem [9].…”