Changes in extreme, cold‐season synoptic precipitation events under global warming

Gutowski, William J.; Willis, Stephanie S.; Patton, Jason C.; Schwedler, Benjamin R. J.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Takle, Eugene S.

doi:10.1029/2008gl035516

Cited by 32 publications

(30 citation statements)

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“…Resolution of each model within this region is listed on Table 2. This is the same region used in some of our previous precipitation analyses (Gutowski et al 2008(Gutowski et al , 2010Kawazoe and Gutowski 2013). Our analysis focuses on the winter season [December-February (DJF)], when synoptic dynamics are more important than in the warmer months, when smaller-scale convective events may be more important (e.g., Schumacher andJohnson 2005, 2006).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our analysis focuses on the winter season [December-February (DJF)], when synoptic dynamics are more important than in the warmer months, when smaller-scale convective events may be more important (e.g., Schumacher andJohnson 2005, 2006). This assumption here is that resolved circulation governs winter events, so that the other model fields we analyze are directly relevant to understanding the physical behavior of very heavy events (e.g., Gutowski et al 2008).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

Kawazoe

Gutowski

2013

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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The authors analyze the ability of global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and its supporting processes, comparing them with observations. Their analysis focuses on an upper Mississippi region for winter (December-February), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. CMIP5 GCMs generally reproduce well the precipitation versus intensity spectrum seen in observations to intensities as strong as 20 mm day −1 . Most models do not produce the highest precipitation intensities seen in observations. Models show good agreement at the 95th percentile, while the coarsest resolution models generally show lower precipitation at high-intensity thresholds, such as the 99.5th percentile. There is no dominant month for simulated very heavy events to occur, although observed very heavy events occur most frequently in December. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5th percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called "widespread events. " Examination of additional fields during widespread very heavy events shows that the models produce these events under the same physical conditions seen in the observations. The coarsest models generally produce similar behavior, although features have smoother spatial distributions. However, the resolution in itself could not be identified as a major reason that separates one model from another. The capabilities of the CMIP5 GCMs examined here support using them to assess changes in very heavy precipitation under future climate scenarios. KeywordsExtreme events, Precipitation, Climate models, General circulation models ABSTRACTThe authors analyze the ability of global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and its supporting processes, comparing them with observations. Their analysis focuses on an upper Mississippi region for winter (December-February), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. CMIP5 GCMs generally reproduce well the precipitation versus intensity spectrum seen in observations to intensities as strong as 20 mm day 21. Most models do not produce the highest precipitation intensities seen in observations. Models show good agreement at the 95th percentile, while the coarsest resolution models generally show lower precipitation at high-intensity thresholds, such as the 99.5th percentile. There is no dominant month for simulated very heavy events to occur, although observed very heavy events occur most frequently in December. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5th percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called ''widespread events.'' Examination of additional fields during widespread very heavy events shows that the models produce these events...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

Kawazoe

Gutowski

2013

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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“…Their results suggested a strong increase in extreme precipitation over the south and central United States, but decreases over the Canadian prairies. Also, Gutowski et al (2008) showed that, for the Upper Mississippi River Basin region during October-March, the intensity of extreme precipitation is projected to increase.…”

Section: North Americamentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Kundzewicz

Kanae

Seneviratne

et al. 2013

Hydrological Sciences Journal

1,161

570

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A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increases in precipitation-generated local flooding (e.g. flash flooding and urban flooding). This article assesses the literature included in the IPCC SREX report and new literature published since, and includes an assessment of changes in flood risk in seven of the regions considered in the recent IPCC SREX report-Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Europe, North America, Oceania and Polar regions. Also considering newer publications, this article is consistent with the recent IPCC SREX assessment finding that the impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of Le risque d'inondation et les perspectives de changement climatique mondial et régionalRésumé Cet article trace une perspective globale de l'évolution des risques d'inondation d'origine pluviale pour la fin du 20ème et le début du 21ème siècle. Les pertes économiques dues aux inondations ont fortement augmenté, principalement en raison de l'exposition croissante des actifs à risque. Il n'a pas été possible d'attribuer les tendances de débits de pointe au changement climatique d'origine anthropique au cours des dernières décennies. Les augmentations prévues de la fréquence et de l'intensité des précipitations extrêmes, basées sur des modèles climatiques, devraient contribuer à une augmentation des inondations locales (par exemple, des crues éclairs et des inondations en milieu urbain) provoquées par les pluies. Nous avons évalué la littérature incluse dans le rapport SREX du GIEC et celle qui a été publiée depuis, afin d'estimer l'évolution des risques d'inondation dans les sept régions considérées dans le rapport récent du SREX du GIEC, à savoir l'Afrique, l'Asie, l'Amérique centrale et du Sud, l'Europe, l'Amérique du Nord, l'Océanie et les régions polaires. Tenant compte des publications les plus récentes, le présent article rejoint la récente évaluation SREX du GIEC selon laquelle les impacts du changement climatique sur les caractéristiques des crues sont très sensibles aux détails de ces changements, et qu'à l'heure actuelle nous ne pouvons avoir qu'une confiance limitée dans les projections numériques de l'évolution de l'amplitude ou de la fréquence des inondations résultant du changement climatique.

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“…1: a coastal California (Coastal CA) region and an upper Mississippi River basin (Upper MS) region. Both regions have an annual maximum in net precipitation (precipitation 2 evaporation), and hence an accumulation of surface and subsurface water, during the cold half of the year (Gutowski et al 1997;Hamlet et al 2007;Tang et al 2010).…”

Section: Analysesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated by NARCCAP RCMs

Gutowski

Arritt

Kawazoe

et al. 2010

Journal of Hydrometeorology

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This paper analyzes the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis with observations. The analysis focuses on the wettest 10% of months during the cold half of the year (October-March), when it is assumed that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. For a coastal California region where the precipitation is largely topographic, the models individually and collectively replicate well the monthly frequency of extremes, the amount of extreme precipitation, and the 500-hPa circulation anomaly associated with the extremes. The models also replicate very well the statistics of the interannual variability of occurrences of extremes. For an interior region containing the upper Mississippi River basin, where precipitation is more dependent on internally generated storms, the models agree with observations in both monthly frequency and magnitude, although not as closely as for coastal California. In addition, simulated circulation anomalies for extreme months are similar to those in observations. Each region has important seasonally varying precipitation processes that govern the occurrence of extremes in the observations, and the models appear to replicate well those variations. RightsCopyright 2010 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (http://www.copyright.com). Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to the AMS Permissions Officer at permissions@ametsoc.org. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (http://www.ametsoc.org/CopyrightInformation). ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the ability of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the National Centers for Environmental ...

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Changes in extreme, cold‐season synoptic precipitation events under global warming

Cited by 32 publications

References 24 publications

Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

Regional, Very Heavy Daily Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations

Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated by NARCCAP RCMs

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