Changes in Extreme Low Temperature Events over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warmer Future Scenarios

Hu, Weiwei; Zhang, Guwei; Zeng, Gang; Li, Zhongxian

doi:10.3390/atmos10010001

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…In this study, the current world is represented by a 30‐years time slice from 1976 to 2005, and the future world is represented by the years 2071–2100 (King et al ., 2017; Sanderson et al ., 2017; Hu et al ., 2018). Temperature extremes indices derived from the HadGHCND gridded daily dataset of near‐surface minimum and maximum temperature observations were used to assess the performance of historical model simulations.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In East Asia, limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would reduce the increases in extreme temperature events by 35–46% (Li et al ., 2018a). Over Northern China, stabilizing warming to 1.5°C target instead of 2.0°C may have benefits of avoiding about 31% (6–56%) of the increases in intensity, frequency and duration of extreme low‐temperature events (Hu et al ., 2018). Yohe (2017) showed that in Northern America, a 0.5°C difference from 2.0°C warming level could reduce the aggregated economic losses due to extreme weather events, by approximately 0.35% (0.2–0.65%) of the gross domestic product.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in extreme temperature events over Africa under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios

Iyakaremye

Zeng

Zhang

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Following the December 2015 Paris Agreement, there is an international effort to limit global warming at 1.5 and 2.0°C relative to the pre‐industrial level. However, there is inadequate research quantifying the difference in extreme temperature between the two target levels, especially in Africa. This study used historical and future low‐warming projections of NCAR‐CESM to assess the differences in extreme temperature events under 1.5 and 2.0°C future scenarios relative to the recent climate taken from 1976 to 2005 over Africa. The results show that compared with the present day, the magnitude of the highest temperature (TXx) will increase by approximately 1.6/2.2°C in 1.5/2.0°C warming worlds, with more substantial warming in Sahara and Southern Africa. The lowest temperature (TNn) will increase by ∼1.9/2.5°C in 1.5/2.0°C future climates, where SAH and SAF will experience a higher intensity of warming followed by Eastern Africa and Western Africa regions. The frequency of hot days (TX90p) is projected to increase with global warming across the continent, with a high increase in SAF and SAH. The frequency of cold days (TN10p) is expected to decrease with global warming in many parts of Africa except in WAF. In most regions, there were no apparent changes revealed in the Warm Spell Duration Indicator relative to the recent climate across the continent except SAH in 1.5 and 2.0°C warming levels, while a decrease in Cold Spell Duration Indicator will be in SAH. Assessment of the avoided impacts in 1.5 relative to 2.0°C indicates that limiting global warming at 1.5 rather than 2.0°C could reduce the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme temperatures from 3 to 81%. However, the magnitude of avoided impacts differs among indices and sub‐regions. Hence, it is paramount for the African continent to limit global warming at 1.5 instead of 2.0°C.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in extreme temperature events over Africa under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios

Iyakaremye

Zeng

Zhang

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…There are two approaches (i.e., the transient and the stabilized approach) to evaluate climate change impacts under the 1.5 • C and 2.0 • C warming levels. The stabilized approach is based on the simulation by the recent Half a Degree Additional Warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI), which is designed to provide stabilized scenarios for the 1.5 and 2.0 • C warming worlds [18,35,36]. The transient method is based on transient climate states extracted from the CMIP5 archive to evaluate climate change impacts at specific global temperature targets.…”

Section: 5 • C and 20 • C Warmer Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to assess the avoided impacts (AI) of heatwave under the 1.5 • C warming compared with a 2.0 • C warmer climate, a formula proposed in previous works [35,53] is used:…”

Section: Avoided Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heatwave Trends and the Population Exposure Over China in the 21st Century as Well as Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warmer Future Scenarios

Guo

Yang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Heatwaves exert negative socio-economic impacts and particularly have serious effects on public health. Based on the multi-model ensemble (MME) results of 10 downscaled high-resolution Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model output from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NASA-GDDP), the intensity (largest lasting time), frequency and total duration of heatwaves over China as well as population exposure in the 21st century and at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels are investigated by using the three indices, the Heat Wave Duration Index (HWDI), annual total frequency of heatwaves (N_HW) and annual total days of heatwaves (T_HW) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MME results illustrate that heatwaves are projected to become more frequent (0.40/decade and 1.26/decade for N_HW), longer-lasting (3.78 days/decade and 14.59 days/decade for T_HW) as well as more extreme (1.07 days/decade and 2.90 days/decade for HWDI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively) over China. High latitude and high altitude regions, e.g., the Tibetan Plateau and northern China, are projected to experience a larger increase of intensity, frequency and the total time of heatwaves compared with southern China (except Central China). The total population affected by heatwaves is projected to increase significantly and will reach 1.18 billion in later part of the 21st century, and there will be more and more people expected to suffer long heatwave time (T_HW) in the 21st century. Compared with a 2.0 °C global warming climate, holding the global warming below 1.5 °C can avoid 26.9% and 29.1% of the increase of HWDI, 34.7% and 39.64% for N_TW and 35.3%–40.10% of T_HW under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. The half-degree less of warming will not only decrease the population exposure by 53–83 million but also avoid the threat caused by longer heatwave exposure under the two scenarios. Based on the comprehensive assessment of heatwave under the two RCP scenarios, this work would help to enhance the understanding of climate change and consequent risk in China and thus could provide useful information for making climate adaptation policies.

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“…They also note changes in South American and African monsoon precipitation related to the volcanic forcing. Hu et al [20] assess projections of extreme low temperature events in Northern China under the IPCC stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2.0 • C above preindustrial levels and show significant differences in the decrease of intensity, frequency and duration of cold extremes across the two scenarios.…”

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confidence: 99%

Weather and Climate Extremes: Current Developments

et al. 2019

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Changes in Extreme Low Temperature Events over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warmer Future Scenarios

Cited by 13 publications

References 29 publications

Changes in extreme temperature events over Africa under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios

Changes in extreme temperature events over Africa under 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios

Heatwave Trends and the Population Exposure Over China in the 21st Century as Well as Under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warmer Future Scenarios

Weather and Climate Extremes: Current Developments

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