Changes in Nordic surface ozone episodes due to European emission reductions in the 1990s

Solberg, Sverre; Bergström, R. W.; Langner, Joakim; Laurila, Tuomas; Lindskog, Anne

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.08.049

Cited by 63 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In this region there are insufficient measurement data available to verify the model results. In Solberg et al (2005) it was shown that the changes in the European emissions of ozone precursors in the 1990s have led to significant reductions in measured and calculated surface ozone episodes in the Nordic countries.…”

Section: Results From Other Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels?

et al. 2006

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Abstract. Ozone levels in Europe are changing. Emissions of ozone precursors from Europe (NO x , CO and nonmethane hydrocarbons) have been substantially reduced over the last 10-15 years, but changes in ozone levels cannot be explained by changes in European emissions alone. The observed ozone trends at many European sites are only partially reproduced by global or regional photochemistry models, and possible reasons for this are discussed.In order to further explain the European trends in ozone since 1990, the EMEP regional photochemistry model has been run for the years 1990 and 1995-2002. The EMEP model is a regional model centred over Europe but the model domain also includes most of the North Atlantic and the polar region. Climatological ozone data are used as initial and lateral boundary concentrations. Model results are compared to measurements over this timespan of 12 years. Possible causes for the measured trends in European surface ozone have been investigated using model sensitivity runs perturbing emissions and lateral boundary concentrations. The increase in winter ozone partially, and the decrease in the magnitude of high ozone episodes, is attributed to the decrease in ozone precursor emissions since 1990 by the model. Furthermore, the model calculations indicate that the emission reductions have resulted in a marked decrease in summer ozone in major parts of Europe, in particular in Germany. Such a trend in summer ozone is likely to be difficult to identify from the measurements alone because of large inter-annual variability.

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Section: Results From Other Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels?

et al. 2006

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“…A broader study of measurement data, including sites in Finland, Norway and Sweden, was combined with a modelling exercise in an attempt to 5/24 interpret the measurement data (Solberg et al, 2005). Again, the data considered were from the summer months, and the daily maxima (hourly average) were used, being thought to be more representative of the well-mixed boundary layer than longer-term averages.…”

Section: Evidence For Recent Trends In Ground-level Ozone Concentrationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Rather than attempt to describe each in detail, the key variables that can be manipulated in a modelling exercise are given below, with reference to Figure 3, which shows the more important interactions and feedbacks which ought to be considered in such models. Jacob et al, 1999;Johnson et al, 2001;Laurila et al, 2004;Lelieveld and Dentener, 2000;] Changes in climate, constant emissions [Johnson et al, 2001;Murazaki and Hess, 2006] Changes in climate, only BVOC emission changes [Langner et al, 2005;Laurila et al, 2004;Meleux et al, 2007;Stevenson et al, 2005] Changes in climate and emissions [Derwent et al, 2006;Gauss et al, 2006;Liao et al, 2006;Stevenson et al, 2005;Stevenson et al, 2006;Unger et al, 2006a;Wu et al, 2008] Radiative forcing by future ozone concentrations Horowitz, 2006;Naik et al, 2005;Unger et al, 2006b] …”

Section: Causes Of Long-term Trends In Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Changes in NO x and VOC emissions in a detailed chemical trajectory model predicted the downward trend in peak European O 3 concentrations and attributed this to reductions in European emissions of VOCs rather than NO x . A different type of model, based on calculating the chemical transformations of emitted pollutants on a regional scale using a 44 km x 44 km horizontal grid and 16 vertical layers, examined the likely effects of European emission reductions during the 1990s on surface O 3 episodes in Nordic countries (Solberg et al, 2005). Although modelled data were scattered compared with measurements, a reduction in the 99 th percentile (highest) O 3 concentrations of around 7.5 ppb was estimated for southern Norway and southern Sweden during the 1990s.…”

Section: Causes Of Long-term Trends In Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Surface ozone concentrations and ecosystem health: Past trends and a guide to future projections

Cape

2008

Science of The Total Environment

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This paper reviews current understanding of the sources and sinks of ozone in the troposphere, recent studies of long-term trends, and the factors which have to be taken into consideration when constructing and interpreting future models of ozone concentration. The factors controlling surface O 3 concentrations are discussed initially to provide a basis for the ensuing discussion, followed by a summary of the evidence for recent trends in ground-level ozone concentrations, i.e. over the past 3 decades, which have shown a significant increase in the annual average in 'background' air typical of the unpolluted northern hemisphere. Closer to precursor sources, although urban winter concentrations have increased, rural peak spring and summer concentrations during ozone 'episodes' have decreased markedly in response to emissions reductions. In order to determine whether such trends are meaningful, the statistical techniques for determining temporal trends are reviewed. The possible causes of long-term trends in ozone are then discussed, with particular reference to the use of chemistry-transport models to interpret past trends. Such models are also used to make predictions of future trends in surface ozone concentrations, but few are comprehensive in integrating future climate changes with changes in land use and in emissions of ozone precursors. Guidance is given on the likely effects of climate/precursor/chemistry interactions so that model predictions can be judged.

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“…The increasing trend of boundary layer ozone concentrations in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region was observed in recent decades due to increasing anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors such as oxides of nitrogen (NO x ) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) [1,2]. This problem has been receiving greater attention due to increasing evidences discovered for the adverse effects of ozone exposure (respiratory and ocular damage, crop yield reduction, climate change, etc.)…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Modelling of the Daily Behavior of the Boundary Layer Ozone in Macau

et al. 2012

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The present study aims to develop an efficient dynamic statistical model to describe the daily behavior of boundary layer ozone in Macau. Four types of Kalman-filter-based models were proposed and applied to model the daily maximum of the 8 hr averaged ozone concentrations within a decade (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009). First, the boundary layer ozone was modelled with the timevarying autoregressive model of order p, TVAR(p), which is a pure time series model hindcasting the ozone concentration by a weighted sum of the ozone histories of the previous p days. Then, it was modelled with the time-varying autoregressive model with linear exogenous input, TVAREX-Lin, which combines the TVAR model and the exogenous input of key meteorological variables in a linear fashion. Next, the nonlinear TVAREX model (TVAREX-NLin) which assumes the nonlinear influence of individual meteorological variable on ozone was adopted. Finally, a semiempirical TVAREX model (TVAREX-O 3 ) was proposed to address the coastal nature of Macau and the interaction between the input variables. It was found that the proposed TVAREX-O 3 model was the most efficient one among the model candidates in terms of the general modelling performance and the capability of modelling the episode situation.

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Changes in Nordic surface ozone episodes due to European emission reductions in the 1990s

Cited by 63 publications

References 16 publications

Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels?

Can we explain the trends in European ozone levels?

Surface ozone concentrations and ecosystem health: Past trends and a guide to future projections

Adaptive Modelling of the Daily Behavior of the Boundary Layer Ozone in Macau

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