Changes in Sea Surface Temperature of the South Baltic Sea (1854–2005)

In the course of analysing the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr), a rapid change of the thermal regime was found between 1987 and 1989. TWr increased by >1°C, a strong, statistically significant positive trend emerged. The analysis of processes showed that strong warming in the cold season of the year (December–March) occurred as a result of an increase in the NAO intensity and warming in the warm season because of increased sunshine duration in Wrocław (ShWr). Multiple regression analysis has shown that the winter NAO Hurrell's index explains 15% of TWr variance, and the ShWr of the long-day (April–August) period 49%, whereas radiative forcing 5.9%. This indicates that the factors incidental to the internal variability of the climate system explain 64% of the TWr variability and the effect of increased CO2 concentration only ~6%. The reason for this rapid change of the thermal regime was a radical change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-European circular sector, which took place between 1988 and 1989. The heat, which is the cause of warming in Wrocław, comes from an increase in solar energy inflow (April–August) and also is transported to Europe from the North Atlantic surface by atmospheric circulation (NAO). These results indicate that the role of CO2 in shaping the contemporary temperature increase is overestimated, whereas the internal variability of the climate system is underestimated.

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Section: The Advection Factor Activitymentioning

confidence: 77%

“…This sought for variable is atmospheric circulation in the cold period, in which sunshine duration does not significantly affect the variability of TWr. The NAO essentially regulates winter temperature over large areas of Europe and Poland (van Loon, Rogers 1978, Hurrell 1995, Hurrell et al 2003, Marsz, Styszyńska 2010.…”

Section: The Advection Factor Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018

Marsz¹,

Styszyńska²,

Bryś

et al. 2021

Quaestiones Geographicae

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“…In the remaining months, the values of correlation coefficients of the NAO index with TWr are insignificant. Such correlation of the winter NAO index with monthly temperature, distributed over time, including asynchronous August correlation, is typical for the whole of Poland(Marsz and Styszyńska, 2010).The range of seasonal variations in air temperature is the largest during winter. For this reason, the variability of air temperature of the first quarter (January-March) explains (adj.R 2 •100%) 57,5% the variance of annual temperature in Wrocław in the years 1951-2018.…”

mentioning

confidence: 74%

“…NAO essentially regulates winter temperature over large areas of Europe and Poland(Hurrell, 1995;Hurrell et al, 2008;Marsz and Styszyńska, 2010;van Loon and Rogers, 1978).NAO is the result of climate variability within the system, and results from the interaction of the ocean and atmosphere over the North Atlantic(Curry and McCartney, 2001; …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of internal variability of climate system in increase of air temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the years 1951–2018

Marsz¹,

Styszyńska

Bryś

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In the course of the annual air temperature in Wrocław (TWr variable) a rapid change of the thermal regime was found between 1987 and 1989. A similar temperature change has occurred in Central Europe. TWr increased by more than 1 deg a strong, statistically significant positive trend emerged. The analysis of processes showed that strong warming in the cold season of the year (December–March) occurred as a result of an increase in the NAO intensity and warming in the warm season as a result of increased sunshine duration. Multiple regression analysis has showed that the winter NAO Hurrell’s index explains 15% of TWr variance, and the sunshine duration of the ‘long day’ (April–August) period 49%, whereas radiative forcing 5.9%. This indicates that the factors incidental to the internal variability of the climate system explain 64% of the TWr variability and the effect of increased CO 2 concentration only ~6%. The reason for this rapid change of the thermal regime was a radical change in macro-circulation conditions in the Atlantic-European circular sector, which took place between 1988 and 1989. It has similarly changed the structure of the Central European weathers. The heat, which is the cause of warming in Wrocław, comes from an increase in solar energy inflow (April–August) and also is transported to Europe from the North Atlantic surface by atmospheric circulation (NAO). These results indicate that the role of CO 2 in shaping the contemporary temperature increase is overestimated, whereas internal variability of the climate system is underestimated.

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“…Monitoring environmental changes is not only important for maintaining the tourism potential of the region [23], but also to plan further actions for the increasing effects of climate change [24,25]. The causes of change are due to both human activities and greenhouse gas emissions [26] as well as macrocirculation phenomena such as the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), Arctic oscillation (AO), or the Scandinavia SCAND [27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34]. The Kłodzko region, as part of the Sudety massif, is additionally an area in which dynamic meteorological phenomena such as fen activity occur locally, which is typical for mountain areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes of Bioclimatic Conditions in the Kłodzko Region (SW Poland)

Głogowski

Perona

Bryś³

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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Despite continuous technological development, lack of data or discontinuity in meteorological measurements is still an issue affecting many stations. This study was devoted to determining the bioclimatic conditions in the Kłodzko region (SW Poland), where meteorological measurements have been discontinuous since 2006. Four stations with continuous measurements were analyzed. These localities are situated at Kłodzko and its health resorts. Bioclimatic conditions were determined using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The study of variability in UTCI was performed in different circulation epochs. Additionally, a non-linear model for SW Poland was used to reconstruct the long-term trend of air temperature in the Kłodzko region. Verification of this model was performed on the basis of own air temperature measurements in the period from April 2017 to March 2022. Analysis of thermal conditions in circulation phases showed higher air temperatures and UTCI values in epoch W (1989–present) compared to epoch E (1966–1988) at all analyzed stations. The non-linear model of meteorological data showed its applicability for data reconstruction in the region with an accuracy of about 67%. Further modification of the model may serve to increase its applicability to other locations in Europe or North America.

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Changes in Sea Surface Temperature of the South Baltic Sea (1854–2005)

Cited by 7 publications

References 13 publications

Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018

Role of Internal Variability of Climate System in Increase of Air Temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the Years 1951–2018

Role of internal variability of climate system in increase of air temperature in Wrocław (Poland) in the years 1951–2018

Changes of Bioclimatic Conditions in the Kłodzko Region (SW Poland)

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