Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during the late last interglacial recorded in oxygen isotopes of a stalagmite from the Yongxing Cave, central China

Zhang, Weihong; Zhang, Zhenqiu; Liao, Zebo; Wang, Yi; Chen, Shitao; Shao, Qingfeng; Wang, Yongjin

doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2019.04.024

Cited by 13 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Since orbital forcing is playing a negligible role in external forcing in the current centuries (Seth et al, 2019), the competing effects of external anthropogenic forcings dominate these long-term trends: anthropogenic forcings are firstly the effect of GHGs and secondly the effect of sulfate aerosols and land-surface changes (Singh et al, 2019). The weakening trend of the Indian monsoon is associated with the GHG-induced warming of the Indian Ocean sea surface and the fact that the concurrent warming over the Indian subcontinent was dampened due to aerosols and land-cover changes (Zhou et al, 2008;Deser et al, 2010;Seth et al, 2019). The dampening effect over land results from the steep rise of anthropogenic emissions including sulfate aerosols in India and neighboring regions as well as enormous changes in land cover since the 1950s due to the strong expansion of industry and the population growth (Acharya and Sreekesh, 2013;Krishna Moorthy et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

et al. 2021

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Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP6 are of interest. Here, we analyze 32 models of the latest CMIP6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with a high agreement between the models independent of the SSP if global warming is the dominant forcing of the monsoon dynamics as it is in the 21st century; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm d−1 and 5.3 % per kelvin of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

et al. 2021

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“…Monsoon dynamics is identified as the most important atmospheric factor for the precipitation budget over NWH. Although, indications of strong changes in the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon have been observed in the multimillennial paleo‐records (Wang et al ., 2005, Wang et al ., 2008, Li et al ., 2017,Wang et al ., 2017, Zhang et al ., 2019; Ming et al . (2020); Wang et al ., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the North‐West Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

Banerjee

Singh

2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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In the context of widely reported climate change over the mountainous region, the present work addresses the notable changes in the seasonal precipitation dynamics over the NWH region under two different future warming scenarios [socioeconomic pathway 245 (SSP245) and socio economic pathway 585 (SSP585)]. Using three coupled climate models which participated in the Climate Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we focus on the alterations of the spatio‐temporal pattern of solid and liquid precipitation in respective seasons under future warming (2066–2100) scenarios with respect to the historical time period (1981–2014). Intercomparative validation of the CMIP6 data sets has been carried out against the GPCP and ERA‐5 reanalysis datasets where the multimodel mean (MMM) product has performed well (r value = 0.63) compared with the individual model outputs in the historical scenario for last 35 years (1981–2014). Therefore, MMM has been used for analysis. Statistically robust K–S test suggests a remarkable variation in the cumulative distribution of the precipitation across the NWH region at 95% confidence level in both of the future warming scenarios as compared with the historical time period. Furthermore, significant increase in the JJAS rainfall (~25–30%) and decrease in the DJF snowfall (~20–25%) has been observed for ssp585 scenario whereas no significant results are noted under ssp245 scenario. Remarkable variations in the surface temperature distribution, large scale wind circulation pattern and mesoscale hydrometeorological balance under the warmest scenario (SSP585) elucidate the reason behind the noteworthy changes in the precipitation dynamics reflected from the normalized precipitation index (NPI) and changes in annual cycle and therefore illustrates the possibility of more extreme precipitation years in future. The overall investigation reflects the possible effect of climate change over the NWH region pertaining to the dynamics of the South West Monsoon and Western Disturbances.

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“…Multi-millennial paleorecords indicate strong changes both in the Indian and East Asian summer monsoon (Wang et al, 2005b(Wang et al, , a, 2008Zhang et al, 2008;Li et al, 2017;Wang et al, 2017;Zhang et al, 2019;Ming et al;Wang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP-6 models

Katzenberger¹,

Schewe²,

Pongratz³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP-5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP-6 are of interest. Here, we analyse 32 models of the latest CMIP-6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with high agreement between the models and independent of the SSP; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm/day and 5.3 % per degree of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP-5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP-6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP-5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall.

show abstract

Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during the late last interglacial recorded in oxygen isotopes of a stalagmite from the Yongxing Cave, central China

Abstract: Yi (2019) Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during the late last interglacial recorded in oxygen isotopes of a stalagmite from the Yongxing Cave, central China.

Cited by 13 publications

References 76 publications

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

An appraisal of seasonal precipitation dynamics over the North‐West Himalayan region under future warming scenarios

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP-6 models

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