Changes in the climate and sea ice of the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th and 21st centuries from data of observations and modeling

Алексеев, Г. В.; Danilov, A. I.; Kattsov, Vladimir; Kuzmina, Svetlana I.; Ivanov, N. E.

doi:10.1134/s0001433809060012

Cited by 25 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…A more plausible hypothesis that would readily explain the absence of the ETCW in the AGCM simulations is a concurrent reduced Arctic sea ice cover that is not present in the surface forcing dataset. Particularly important are the sea ice anomalies in the Barents and Kara Seas where observations indeed indicate a considerable retreat of summer sea ice extent during the 1930s and 1940s (Alekseev et al, 2007(Alekseev et al, , 2009Johannessen et al, 2004;Polyakov et al, 2003a;Divine and Dick, 2006;Zakharov, 2003). It is important to note in this context that on decadal and longer timescales observed summer and winter sea ice extent variations exhibit a high coherence during (Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice

Семенов

Latif

2012

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. The Arctic has featured the strongest surface warming over the globe during the recent decades, and the temperature increase has been accompanied by a rapid decline in sea ice extent. However, little is known about Arctic sea ice change during the early twentieth century warming (ETCW) during 1920-1940, also a period of a strong surface warming, both globally and in the Arctic. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of Arctic winter surface air temperature (SAT) to sea ice during 1875-2008 by means of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced by estimates of the observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration. The Arctic warming trend since the 1960s is very well reproduced by the model. In contrast, ETCW in the Arctic is hardly captured. This is consistent with the fact that the sea ice extent in the forcing data does not strongly vary during ETCW. AGCM simulations with observed SST but fixed sea ice reveal a strong dependence of winter SAT on sea ice extent. In particular, the warming during the recent decades is strongly underestimated by the model, if the sea ice extent does not decline and varies only seasonally. This suggests that a significant reduction of winter Arctic sea ice extent may have also accompanied the early twentieth century warming, pointing toward an important link between anomalous sea ice extent and Arctic surface temperature variability.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice

Семенов

Latif

2012

The Cryosphere

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“…Such a mechanism was proposed to explain the early twentieth-century warming (ETCW) in the Arctic (Bengtsson et al 2004). A multi-decadal negative sea ice anomaly in winter during ETCW is suggested by empirical data analysis (Polyakov et al 2003, Alekseev et al 2009, Miles et al 2014 and by model reconstructions . It should also be noted that recently found indications of nonlinear atmospheric response to sea ice forcing in the Barents Sea (Petoukhov andLatif 2015) as well as a non-stationary link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic climate indices (Semenov et al 2009 add more complexity in the hypothesized dynamical links.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

Alexeev

Walsh

Ivanov

et al. 2017

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m À2 , which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.

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“…ALEKSEEV et al SIE, which has accelerated over the past two decades (e.g. Smolyanitsky, 2003;Johannessen et al, 2004;Stroeve et al, 2007;Comiso et al, 2008;Alekseev et al, 2009;Kwok and Rothrock, 2009;Stroeve et al, 2011;Ivanov et al, 2013;Simmonds, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On assessment of the relationship between changes of sea ice extent and climate in the Arctic

Алексеев

Glok

Smirnov

2015

Intl Journal of Climatology

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An increase of surface air temperature (SAT) in the marine Arctic (a part of the Arctic covered with sea ice in winter) shows a good relationship with reduction of sea ice extent (SIE) in summer. For instance, a strong correlation (a coefficient equal to −0.93) was found between the summer SAT in the marine Arctic and satellite-derived 1980-2014 September sea ice index (the average of SIE in the Arctic since 1978, in millions of km 2 ). Based on this finding, anomalies of Arctic September SIE were reconstructed from the beginning of 20th century using a linear regression relationship. This reconstructed SIE shows a substantial decrease in the 1930-1940s with a minimum occurring in 1936, which, however, is only a half of the decline in 2012. The strong relationship between the summer SAT and September SIE was used to assess the onset of summer sea ice disappearance in the Arctic Ocean. According to the estimates made with a simple regression model, we can expect a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean as early as in the mid-2030s. An impact of the inflow of warm and salty Atlantic water (AW) on winter SIE was evaluated as an example for the Barents Sea. This evaluation reveals a coherent spatial pattern of the AW spreading, presented by surface salinity distribution, and the position of sea ice edge, and significant correlation between the inflow of the AW and maximal SIE. This publication presents a revised version of an 'Arctic sea ice extent in changing climate' report (Alekseev et al., 2015).

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Changes in the climate and sea ice of the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th and 21st centuries from data of observations and modeling

Cited by 25 publications

References 11 publications

The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice

The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice

Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

On assessment of the relationship between changes of sea ice extent and climate in the Arctic

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