Basin have increased winter ventilation in the ocean interior, making this region 46 structurally similar to that of the western Eurasian Basin. The associated enhanced 47 release of oceanic heat has reduced winter sea-ice formation at a rate now comparable to 48 losses from atmospheric thermodynamic forcing, thus explaining the recent reduction in 49 sea-ice cover in the eastern Eurasian Basin. This encroaching "atlantification" of the 50Eurasian Basin represents an essential step toward a new Arctic climate state, with a 51 substantially greater role for Atlantic inflows. 52 53 3 Over the last decade, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic losses of sea-ice loss in 54 the summers, with record-breaking years in 2007 and 2012 for both the Amerasian Basin 55 and the Eurasian Basin (EB). More remarkably, the eastern EB has been nearly ice-free 56 (<10 % ice coverage) at the end of summer since 2011 (Fig. 1). Most sea ice-mass loss 57 results from summer solar heating of the surface mixed layer (SML) through cracks in the 58 ice and open water, and consequent melting of the lower surface of the ice (1-3). Heat 59 advected into the EB interior by Atlantic water (AW) generally has not been considered 60 an important contributor to sea-ice reduction, due to effective insulation of the overlying 61 cold halocline layer (CHL) (4) that separates the cold and fresh SML and pack ice from 62 heat carried by the warm and saline AW. 63There are, however, reasons to believe the role of AW heat in sea-ice reduction is not 64 negligible, and may be increasingly important (5). Nansen (6) warming has slowed slightly since 2008 (Fig. 2c). 74Strong stratification, which is found in most of the Arctic Ocean, prevents vigorous 75 ventilation of the AW. One notable exception is the western Nansen Basin, north and 76 4 northeast of Svalbard, where proximity to the sources of inflowing AW makes possible 77 significant interactions between the SML and the ocean interior (5). Specifically, weakly 78 stratified AW entering the Nansen Basin through Fram Strait is subject to direct 79 ventilation in winter, caused by cooling and haline convection associated with sea ice 80 formation (15). This ventilation leads to the reduction of sea-ice thickness along the 81 continental slope off Svalbard (16, 17). In the past, these conditions have been limited to 82 the western EB, since winter ventilation of AW in the eastern EB was constrained by 83 stronger stratification there. However, newly acquired data show that conditions 84 previously only identified in the western Nansen Basin now can be observed in the 85 eastern EB as well. We call this eastward progression of the western EB conditions the 86 "atlantification" of the EB of the Arctic Ocean. 87 Overview of sea ice state 88The progressive decline in sea ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean during the satellite era, at 89 13.4 % per decade during September (18), has been accompanied by decreases in average 90 sea ice thickness of at least 1.7 m in the central Arctic (19, 20). In the region of t...

Analysis of modern and historical observations demonstrates that the temperature of the intermediatedepth (150-900 m) Atlantic water (AW) of the Arctic Ocean has increased in recent decades. The AW warming has been uneven in time; a local ;18C maximum was observed in the mid-1990s, followed by an intervening minimum and an additional warming that culminated in 2007 with temperatures higher than in the 1990s by 0.248C. Relative to climatology from all data prior to 1999, the most extreme 2007 temperature anomalies of up to 18C and higher were observed in the Eurasian and Makarov Basins. The AW warming was associated with a substantial (up to 75-90 m) shoaling of the upper AW boundary in the central Arctic Ocean and weakening of the Eurasian Basin upper-ocean stratification. Taken together, these observations suggest that the changes in the Eurasian Basin facilitated greater upward transfer of AW heat to the ocean surface layer. Available limited observations and results from a 1D ocean column model support this surmised upward spread of AW heat through the Eurasian Basin halocline. Experiments with a 3D coupled ice-ocean model in turn suggest a loss of 28-35 cm of ice thickness after ;50 yr in response to the 0.5 W m 22 increase in AW ocean heat flux suggested by the 1D model. This amount of thinning is comparable to the 29 cm of ice thickness loss due to local atmospheric thermodynamic forcing estimated from observations of fast-ice thickness decline. The implication is that AW warming helped precondition the polar ice cap for the extreme ice loss observed in recent years.

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This study was motivated by a strong warming signal seen in mooring‐based and oceanographic survey data collected in 2004 in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The source of this and earlier Arctic Ocean changes lies in interactions between polar and sub‐polar basins. Evidence suggests such changes are abrupt, or pulse‐like, taking the form of propagating anomalies that can be traced to higher‐latitudes. For example, an anomaly found in 2004 in the eastern Eurasian Basin took ∼1.5 years to propagate from the Norwegian Sea to the Fram Strait region, and additional ∼4.5–5 years to reach the Laptev Sea slope. While the causes of the observed changes will require further investigation, our conclusions are consistent with prevailing ideas suggesting the Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a new, warmer state.