Changes in the mountain river discharge in the northern Tien Shan since the mid-20th Century: Results from the analysis of a homogeneous daily streamflow data set from seven catchments

Shahgedanova, Maria; Afzal, Muhammad; Severskiy, Igor; Usmanova, Z.; Saidaliyeva, Zarina; Kapitsa, Vassiliy; Kasatkin, Nikolay; Dolgikh, S.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.001

Cited by 36 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The majority of these in situ monitoring programs stopped in the early 1990s after the breakup of the USSR. Regular mass balance measurements continued only on Central Tuyuksu (Shahgedanova et al 2018) and Urumchi Glacier No. 1 in China (WGMS 2017), neither of which, however, is in the ASB.…”

Section: Glacier Mass Balancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sensitivity of glaciers to increasing summer temperatures is assumed to be responsible for the long-term retreat (Glazirin et al 2002); however, changes in precipitation should not be disregarded. In particular, a well-documented step reduction in precipitation observed in Central Asia in the 1970s, driven by changes in atmospheric circulation, led to a decrease in annual mass balance due to a reduction in accumulation (Cao 1998;Shahgedanova et al 2018). More recent changes in precipitation are non-uniform across the region.…”

Section: Climate Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recent changes in precipitation are non-uniform across the region. Many studies report no statistically significant long-term trends in annual or seasonal precipitation while stressing strong inter-annual variability (Chevallier et al 2014;Finaev 2006;Kriegel et al 2013;Narama et al 2010;Shahgedanova et al 2018). An increasing number of positive-degree days in the high-elevation regions suggests a growing frequency of days with liquid precipitation (Kriegel et al, 2013) which results in lower accumulation and further enhancement of glacier melt through suppressing surface albedo.…”

Section: Climate Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies analyzing trends in streamflow over shorter time periods show an increase in streamflow; for example, Finaev (2006) reported positive trends at several gauges in the Pamir for the 1990-2005 period but acknowledges that poor data quality may have affected the results. Although few, the existing analyses of discharge in the headwater catchments of the ASB and some neighboring basins (Shahgedanova et al 2018;Duethmann et al 2015;Krysanova et al 2015;Kundzewicz et al 2015) show that, to date, summer streamflow has not declined. However, the relative contributions of glacier, snow and permafrost may need more insights.…”

Section: Runoff Trends and Water-related Hazards In Headwater Catchmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Aral Sea Basin

2019

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• The alpine cryosphere, including snow, glaciers and permafrost, is critical to water management in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) and larger Central Asia (CA) under the changing climate, as it stores large amounts of water in its solid forms. Most cryospheric components in the Aral Sea Basin are close to melting point, and hence very vulnerable to a slight increase in air temperature with significant consequences to long-term water availability and to water resources variability and extremes. The alpine cryosphere 101 • Current knowledge about different components of the cryosphere and their connection to climate in the Basin and in the entire Central Asia region varies. While it is advanced in the topics of snow and glaciers, knowledge on permafrost is rather limited. • Observed trends in runoff point in the direction of increasing water availability in July and August at least until mid-century and increasing possibility for water storage in reservoirs and aquifers. However, eventually this will change as glaciers waste away. Future runoff may change considerably after mid-century and start to decline if not compensated by increasing precipitation. • Cryosphere monitoring systems are the basis for sound estimates of water availability and water-related hazards associated with snow, glaciers and permafrost. They require a well-distributed observational network for all cryospheric variables. Such systems need to be re-established in the Basin after the breakup of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. This process is slowly emerging in the region. Collaboration between local operational hydro-meteorological services and the academic sector, and with international research networks, may improve the observational capabilities in high-mountain regions of CA in general and in the ASB in particular.

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Section: Glacier Mass Balancementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Runoff Trends and Water-related Hazards In Headwater Catchmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Aral Sea Basin

2019

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“…The influence of glaciers can be then estimated either by comparing the results among watersheds with different glacier cover (e.g., Birsan et al, 2005;Fleming & Clarke, 2003) or by performing additional trend detection on glacier mass balance time series where available (e.g., Li et al, 2010;Pellicciotti et al, 2010). The main advantage of the historical data analysis approach is that it provides a reliable estimate of recent changes in real discharge variables (Shahgedanova et al, 2018;Stahl et al, 2010). However, while the attribution of statistically identified historical trends to specific drivers of change can be accomplished with some confidence using paired catchment experiments (e.g., Dahlke et al, 2012;Fleming & Dahlke, 2014a, 2014b or a two-step process involving river-by-river trend detection followed by statistical tests to establish relationships with specific watershed properties such as the extent of glacier cover (Fleming & Clarke, 2003;Stahl & Moore, 2006), studies based on trend detection are sometimes limited by being based solely on qualitative reasoning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linking Mountain Glacier Retreat and Hydrological Changes in Southwestern Yukon

Chesnokova

Baraër

Laperrière‐Robillard

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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This study aims to isolate and quantify the role of shrinking glaciers in recent hydrological changes in eight watersheds in the southwestern Yukon (Canada) by using an original dual approach that consists of (i) watershed hydrological regime identification, followed by a trend analysis of discharge time series, and (ii) a model-based peak water (PW) analysis using glacier cover change measurements. A distinction between hydrological regimes is a necessary add-up to commonly used trend attribution methods as the lake runoff regime shares common characteristics with the glacier regime. Results show a link between shrinking glaciers and hydrological changes in the region, but the link is complex, and glacier retreat does not explain all the observed changes. Model outputs show that the two watersheds with a glacierized area exceeding 30% and one watershed with 2.9% glacierized area have not reached PW, whereas a 9.2% glacierized watershed and another watershed with 2.1% glacierized area have already passed it. These results suggest that glacierized area alone cannot explain short-term changes related to watershed current position in terms of PW, and the rate of glacier retreat must be considered. By contrast, the actual rate of glacier retreat does not influence long-term changes, such as the magnitude of PW and of the consequent drop in discharge. Once glaciers will have retreated to a point close to extinction, declines in summer discharge from 10% to 70% and proportional to the actual glacier cover are anticipated at watersheds that are currently more than 9% glacierized. Plain Language SummaryIn this study, we aim to understand how shrinking glacier cover affects river discharges. In conditions of continuous retreat, glaciers produce an initial increase in runoff as they lose mass. The discharge then reaches a turning point, a plateau called peak water, and subsequently declines as the volume of glacial ice continues to decrease. When analyzing eight watersheds with different glacier covers in the southwestern Yukon, we found that two watersheds that are 30% covered by glaciers have not yet reached this plateau, and therefore, the discharge will continue to increase. Several watersheds with smaller glacierized portions have passed peak water, which means that the discharge will now continue to decrease. We were also able to estimate the magnitudes of these changes in discharge. We show that two watersheds with 30% glacierized area can still experience a 1.5-to 2-fold increase in discharge and that watersheds currently more than 9% glacierized are predicted to show noticeable changes after peak water, with the possibility of discharge decreasing by a factor of 3 to 5 by the time glaciers have retreated to a point when their hydrological influence at the watershed scale becomes insignificant.

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Adaptation to climate change in the mountain regions of Central Asia: A systematic literature review

Saidaliyeva,

Muccione,

Shahgedanova

et al. 2024

WIREs Climate Change

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The mountains of Central Asia support many environmental functions and ecosystem services. The mountain environments and their services are affected by climate change and climate change adaptation (CCA) actions are required to increase resilience of regional communities. This paper is a systematic review of the English and Russian‐language literature published between 2013 (IPCC AR5) and May 2021 (IPCC AR6) focusing on CCA in the Central Asian mountains. In all, 52 publications have been reviewed. Criteria defining incremental and transformative adaptation were established and the reviewed studies were assigned to one of these approaches. The relatively low number of publications shows that the extent of CCA knowledge represented in academic literature is limited in comparison to other mountainous regions. There is a disparity between the growing body of publications addressing climate change and limited and decreasing number of academic publications focusing on adaptation in the region. Only 11 publications reported transformative adaptation actions. Most of the reviewed papers (55%) focus on water resources and future water availability; 15% focus on land degradation, 10% on changes in vertical zonation of plant species, 7% on loss of plant species, 3% on impacts of hazardous events, and 10% on multiple impacts of climate change. The awareness of the importance of CCA among the regional actors should be improved through closer collaboration between researchers, international organizations focusing on sustainable development and adaptation which have recently become more active in the region, practitioners, and local communities and co‐production of knowledge on the development and implementation of CCA.This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Humanities and the Creative Arts Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Humanities and the Creative Arts Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change

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Changes in the mountain river discharge in the northern Tien Shan since the mid-20th Century: Results from the analysis of a homogeneous daily streamflow data set from seven catchments

Abstract: Changes in the mountain river discharge in the northern Tien Shan since the mid 20th Century: results from the analysis of a homogeneous daily streamflow data set from seven catchments Article Accepted Version

Cited by 36 publications

References 53 publications

The Aral Sea Basin

The Aral Sea Basin

Linking Mountain Glacier Retreat and Hydrological Changes in Southwestern Yukon

Adaptation to climate change in the mountain regions of Central Asia: A systematic literature review

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