Changes to Land Area Used for Grain Maize Production in Central Europe due to Predicted Climate Change

Abstract

Regional biogeographical models are considered to be important tools for supporting decisions relating to sustainable agricultural planning for climate change. These models are useful for a better understanding of the impact of climate change on individual crop species due to their sensitivity to regional ecological conditions. This paper deals with the application of a regional biogeographical model in order to predict the impact of climate change on growing conditions for grain maize in Central Europe. The model is based on a detailed knowledge of the relationships between the climatic characteristics of vegetation zones in landscapes with ecological growing conditions suitable for grain maize in the region under study. The results gained from using the model indicate a substantial increase in the total area suitable for growing of grain maize in the study region. By 2070, this area is expected to be triple the size it is today. Special maps are used to visualize prediction scenarios in order to support decision-making in regional planning in the study region, where grain maize is an important agricultural crop. This biogeographical model can be used in other European regions, where basic data related to vegetation zones are available.

Application of Multi-Component Conditioner with Clinoptilolite and Ascophyllum nodosum Extract for Improving Soil Properties and Zea mays L. Growth and Yield

“…Moreover, the relatively simple production technology and very high yield potential mean that maize, in addition to rice and wheat, is one of the crops that are most often cultivated in the world. It has been shown that by 2070, the total land area suitable to cultivate maize in Central Europe will increase threefold [1]. Such increasing of maize cultivation areas is related to the increase of air temperature and changes in the total and annual cycles of precipitation.…”

“…Such increasing of maize cultivation areas is related to the increase of air temperature and changes in the total and annual cycles of precipitation. The maize is cultivated in place of cereal and root crops areas, as well as, to a lesser extent, forage and grasslands [1]. The different possible uses of its grain yield or biomass (consumptive, fodder, renewable energy sources-RES) means that maize is very flexible for meeting specific requirements and changing market needs [2][3][4].…”

SPAD Leaf Greenness Index: Green Mass Yield Indicator of Maize (Zea mays L.), Genetic and Agriculture Practice Relationship

“…According to Zhao et al [ 24 ], an increase in the average global air temperature by 1 degree Celsius reduced maize yield by 7.4%. The results obtained in the current study indicated the importance of weather conditions, mainly hydrothermal, which varied between the years of research, on the obtained green mass of maize and other crops [ 25 , 26 ]. The average lowest yield of maize green mass for the years was recorded in 2011 (49.17 t ha −1 —Experiment I) and 2014 (54.28 t ha −1 —Experiment II).…”

Impact of Global and Regional Climate Changes upon the Crop Yields

“…The investigations, conducted in the EU-15 countries, show that, in order to model productivity in the future, it is necessary to include not only the weather indicators but also organizational and economic characteristics of the farms, which significantly increases the reliability of the forecast (Reidsma et al, 2009). Based on the climate change forecasts, there has been identified the possibility of a significant expansion of the area, suitable for growing corn in Central Europe (Pavlik et al, 2019). At the same time in Eastern Europe the corn (maize) yields will decrease due to the climate warming (Pinke and Lövei, 2017).…”