Changing the retention properties of catchments and their influence on runoff under climate change

Yang, Hui; Piao, Shilong; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Li, Yue; Wang, Tao; Peng, Shushi; Yang, Yuting; Yang, Dawen; Chang, Jinfeng

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aadd32

Cited by 25 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…In addition, these Eurasian Arctic rivers are highly affected by permafrost ( figure S2), which as yet is not fully included in JULES-CN. The bias in trends for Asian basins may reflect poor representation of direct human intervention (notably dams, irrigation) on runoff (Yang et al 2018). Raised levels of irrigation and regulation enhance surface evaporation and possibly reduce runoff in intensively cultivated areas (hence our findings support those of Tang et al 2007, Haddeland et al 2014.…”

Section: Evaluation Of Simulated Present-day Runoffsupporting

confidence: 55%

Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration

Yang

Huntingford

Wiltshire

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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River runoff is a key attribute of the land surface, that additionally has a strong influence on society by the provision of freshwater. Yet various environmental factors modify runoff levels, and some trends could be detrimental to humanity. Drivers include elevated CO 2 concentration, climate change, aerosols and altered land-use. Additionally, nitrogen deposition and tropospheric ozone changes influence plant functioning, and thus runoff, yet their importance is less understood. All these effects are now included in the JULES-CN model. We first evaluate runoff estimates from this model against 42 large basin scales, and then conduct factorial simulations to investigate these mechanisms individually. We determine how different drivers govern the trends of runoff over three decades for which data is available. Numerical results suggest rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration is the most important contributor to the global mean runoff trend, having a significant mean increase of +0.18 ± 0.006 mm yr −2 and due to the overwhelming importance of physiological effects. However, at the local scale, the dominant influence on historical runoff trends is climate in 82% of the global land area. This difference is because climate change impacts, mainly due to precipitation changes, can be positive (38% of global land area) or negative (44% of area), depending on location. For other drivers, land use change leads to increased runoff trends in wet tropical regions and decreased runoff in Southeast China, Central Asia and the eastern USA. Modelling the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in general suppresses runoff decreases induced by the CO 2 fertilization effect, highlighting the importance of carbon-nitrogen interactions on ecosystem hydrology. Nitrogen effects do, though, induce decreasing trend components for much of arid Australia and the boreal regions. Ozone influence was mainly smaller than other drivers.

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Section: Evaluation Of Simulated Present-day Runoffsupporting

confidence: 55%

Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration

Yang

Huntingford

Wiltshire

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…For instance, H. Yang et al. (2018) ignored ΔS at a 5‐year scale in the application of the Budyko framework, while C. Wang et al. (2019) ignored ΔS at the scale of 29‐years of 1981–2009, on the Loess Plateau.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Liang et al (2015) ignored ΔS on a multi-year scale from 1961 to 2009. H. Yang et al (2018) ignored ΔS on a 5-year scale from 1981 to 2005. But is it reasonable to ignore ΔS in water balance such as those above?…”

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confidence: 99%

Historical Water Storage Changes Over China's Loess Plateau

Shao

Zhang

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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Estimating long-term average annual water balance at the catchment scale has been an important scientific problem in hydrology and a reliable method for long-term estimates of evapotranspiration (D. Wang, 2012). Water and vegetation in the catchments have reached equilibrium through long-term evolution, so that there is an inextricable relationship between water balance and vegetation change (Gerten et al., 2004). Changes in vegetation affect the elements of water balance, thus vegetation coverage plays an influential role in regulating regional water balance (Heimann & Reichstein, 2008; Seddon et al., 2016). Precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow (Q), and water storage changes (ΔS) are important components of water balance estimates. Previous studies (e.g., Shao et al., 2019) have demonstrated that vegetation restoration could lead to increases in regional ET over the Loess Plateau, thus changing the water availability. This could potentially exacerbate tensions between water supply and demand in water-stressed regions. Thus, it can be further hypothesized that the vegetation changes may influence the catchment-scale water balance. In addition, the relationship between ΔS and vegetation may be scale dependent and remains unclear, thus studying the time scale of ΔS in vegetation recovery areas is particularly important. The Loess Plateau, a typical arid and semi-arid region, accounts for 6.6% of China's total land area and supports 8.5% of the population (Fu et al., 2011). It is one of the most water scarce regions with the most fragile ecosystems in the world (Y. Wang et al., 2011; B. Zhang et al., 2016). In the past, the Loess Plateau, with its sparse vegetation coverage, frequent summer rains and intensive agricultural practices, suffered unprecedented water scarcity, soil erosion and fragile ecosystems (C. Wang et al., 2016; Z. Yang et al., 2016). These ecological and environmental problems significantly affect ecological environment and socioeconomic

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“…Runoff from about one third of the 200 largest rivers has changed significantly since the 1950s (Dai et al, ), but having much longer (century‐scale) information on seasonal runoff variability for individual watersheds helps with constraining climate model projections (Yang et al, ). The Truckee‐Carson river system is dependent on the amount or size of accumulated snowpack, which can be highly variable from year to year.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐Term Hydroclimatic Patterns in the Truckee‐Carson Basin of the Eastern Sierra Nevada, USA

Biondi

Meko

2019

Water Resources Research

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The Truckee/Carson Basin, like other semiarid basins in the western United States, faces challenges to water management and planning under a changing climate. We analyzed tree‐ring data, along with instrumental climatic and hydrologic records, to provide a perspective on extreme drought in the 21st century. Drought indices highlighted a recent increase in the average duration of hydroclimatic episodes: in the new millennium average duration was 74% longer for the 24‐month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI‐24) and 62% longer for the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) than in the previous century. Average snow water equivalent (SWE) declined 7% per decade from 1965 to 2018. The 2012‐2015 drought, in particular, stood out for its intensity and expression in snowpack, streamflow, and drought indices. Likely because of recent warming, this 4‐year drought event had a very low likelihood based on observed Carson River flows from the first half of the 20th century. A 501‐year tree‐ring reconstruction (1500‐2000 CE) of average water‐year streamflow for the Carson River indicated that positive (wet) spells had slightly longer duration (mean of 2.7 years and range from 1 to 10 years) than negative (dry) intervals (mean of 2.4 years and range from 1 to 9 years). The early 1900s pluvial, that is, 1905‐1911 in this record, was the third strongest episode in the entire reconstruction. The driest years were 1580 and 1934, both well‐known widespread and severe droughts in the western United States. Noise‐added reconstructions suggest that 2012‐2015, while not unique in the 401 years prior to the start of the Carson River gaged flows in 1901, was a less than one‐in‐a‐century event.

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Changing the retention properties of catchments and their influence on runoff under climate change

Cited by 25 publications

References 46 publications

Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration

Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration

Historical Water Storage Changes Over China's Loess Plateau

Long‐Term Hydroclimatic Patterns in the Truckee‐Carson Basin of the Eastern Sierra Nevada, USA

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Changing the retention properties of catchments and their influence on runoff under climate change

Cited by 25 publications

References 46 publications

Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration

Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration

Historical Water Storage Changes Over China's Loess Plateau

Long‐Term Hydroclimatic Patterns in the Truckee‐Carson Basin of the Eastern Sierra Nevada, USA

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Product

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Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration

Compensatory climate effects link trends in global runoff to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration