2020
DOI: 10.1140/epjp/s13360-020-00811-z
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Chaos, percolation and the coronavirus spread: a two-step model

Abstract: We discuss a two-step model for the rise and decay of a new coronavirus (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoV-2) first reported in December 2019, COVID-19. The first stage is well described by the same equation for turbulent flows, population growth and chaotic maps: a small number of infected, d 0 , grows exponentially to a saturation value, d ∞. The typical growth time (aggressive spreading of the virus) is given by τ = 1 λ where λ is the Lyapunov exponent. After a time t crit determined by social distancin… Show more

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Cited by 12 publications
(12 citation statements)
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“…The blue points are actual data collected after October 29. A further fit to newer data results in an increase on the predictions [3]. A small increase of the data respect to the prediction maybe noticed and this is in part due to the increase of number of tests respect to our fit [3].…”
Section: Figurementioning
confidence: 99%
See 4 more Smart Citations
“…The blue points are actual data collected after October 29. A further fit to newer data results in an increase on the predictions [3]. A small increase of the data respect to the prediction maybe noticed and this is in part due to the increase of number of tests respect to our fit [3].…”
Section: Figurementioning
confidence: 99%
“…before or after a lockdown for instance) times eq. (3) gives the number of cases (positive or deceased) [3].…”
Section: Figurementioning
confidence: 99%
See 3 more Smart Citations