Chapter 19 : Southeast. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II

Carter, Lynne M.; Terando, Adam; Dow, Kirstin; Hiers, Kevin; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lascurain, Aranzazu; Marcy, Doug; Osland, Michael J.; Schramm, Paul

doi:10.7930/nca4.2018.ch19

Cited by 56 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 207 publications

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“…Home to over 2 million residents, the Triangle is bracing for rapid population and economic growth over the next half century (Triangle J Council of Governments, ) and the accompanying land use changes. Significant increases to urban area are projected for the Triangle, consistent with expectations for the Southeast United States at large (Carter et al, ; Wear, ), which will alter streamflow patterns as forest cover is reduced. The Triangle falls within the Southeast climate region (Carter et al, ) with hot and humid weather in summertime and high‐temperature variation in winter.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 65%

“…Significant increases to urban area are projected for the Triangle, consistent with expectations for the Southeast United States at large (Carter et al, ; Wear, ), which will alter streamflow patterns as forest cover is reduced. The Triangle falls within the Southeast climate region (Carter et al, ) with hot and humid weather in summertime and high‐temperature variation in winter. Average annual precipitation across the historical record is 1,124 mm/year, while in the more recent 1990–1999 decade average annual precipitation in the Triangle was 1,167 mm/year with a standard deviation of 142 mm/year.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 65%

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Accounting for Adaptive Water Supply Management When Quantifying Climate and Land Cover Change Vulnerability

Gorelick

Lin

Zeff

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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Climate and land cover change strongly shape water resources management, but understanding their joint impacts is extremely challenging. Consequently, there is limited research of their integrated effects on water supply systems, and even fewer studies that rigorously account for infrastructure investment and management interventions. We utilize ecohydrologic modeling to generate watershed outflows under scenarios of climate and land cover change, which in turn drive modeled water utility-level decision making for the Research Triangle region of North Carolina. In the Triangle region, land cover and climate change are both likely to increase water supply availability (reservoir inflows) individually and in tandem. However, improvements from water supply increases are not uniform across management system performance indicators of reliability, conservation implementation frequency (i.e., water use restrictions), and infrastructure investment. Utility decisions influence the impact of hydrologic change through both short-term (e.g., use restrictions and water transfers) and longer-term infrastructure investment actions, in some cases offsetting the beneficial effects of additional water supply. Timing and sequencing of infrastructure development are strongly sensitive to climate and land use change as captured by their impacts on utility performance outcomes. This work underscores the need to consider adaptive management system responses and decision-relevant performance measures when determining the impacts of hydrologic change on water availability. Key Points: • Utility-scale decision making influences the impact of climate and land use change on both short-and long-term outcomes • Timing and sequencing of infrastructure development is highly sensitive to hydrologic change as captured by utility performance indicators • Impacts of hydrologic change are not uniform across performance indicators, utilities, or time, owing to management actions Supporting Information: • Supporting Information S1 Vose, J. M., Coulston, J. W., et al. (2020). Accounting for adaptive water supply management when quantifying climate and land cover change vulnerability. Water Resources Research, 56, e2019WR025614. https://

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 65%

Accounting for Adaptive Water Supply Management When Quantifying Climate and Land Cover Change Vulnerability

Gorelick

Lin

Zeff

et al. 2020

Water Resources Research

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“…Chiang et al 2018) showing increased vulnerabilities to crop losses by weather and climate-driven events (figure 3). Consistently increasing and significant monthly trends in excess moisture in the SE correspond to an intensification of the hydrologic cycle in the region ( figure 6), and indicate continued crop losses due to water abundance (Carter et al 2018). In the SP region, the fraction of aggregated indemnities for hail is larger than excess moisture indicating the intensity of precipitation rather than sheer amount is important in this area.…”

Section: Regional-scale Vulnerabilitiesmentioning

confidence: 82%

Spatio-temporal variation of crop loss in the United States from 2001 to 2016

Reyes

Elias

2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Crop insurance loss data can illuminate variations in agricultural impacts from exposure to weather and climate-driven events, and can improve our understanding of agricultural vulnerabilities. Here we perform a retrospective analysis of weather and climate-driven reasons for crop loss (i.e. cause of loss) obtained from the Risk Management Agency of the United States Department of Agriculture. The federal crop insurance program has insured over $440 billion in liabilities representing farmers' crops from 2001 to 2016. Specifically, we examine the top ten weather and climate-driven causes of loss from 2001 to 2016 across the nation comprising at least 83% of total indemnities (i.e. insurance payouts provided to farmers after crop loss events). First, we analyzed the relative fraction of indemnities by causes of loss, over different spatial and temporal resolutions. We found that drought and excess precipitation comprised the largest sources of crop loss across the nation. However, these causes varied strongly over space and time. We applied two additional normalization techniques to indemnities using (1) insurance premia and the gross domestic product implicit price deflator, and (2) liabilities to calculate the loss cost. We conducted trend analyses using the Mann-Kendall statistical test on loss cost over time. Differential trends and patterns in loss cost demonstrated the importance of spatio-temporal resolution in assessing causes of loss. The majority of monthly significant trends (p<0.05) showed increasing loss cost (i.e. increasing indemnities or decreasing liabilities) in response to weather events. Finally, we briefly discuss an online portal (AgRisk Viewer) to make these data accessible at multiple spatial scales and sub-annual time steps to support both research and outreach efforts promoting adaptation and resilience in agricultural systems.

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“…The hydrologic cycle is expected to intensify under scenarios of future climate change. Changing patterns of precipitation in the Southeast U.S. includes an expected increase in heavy downpours (Carter et al, 2018). Although stormwater ponds are not designed to alleviate flooding from major storm events, one can conclude from this that climate non-stationarity may ultimately affect the size of a "design storm": the event return period and amount of rainfall that policy dictates ponds should be able to hold and slowly release.…”

Section: Geologic and Hydrologic Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Salinity dynamics in freshwater ponds in proximity to tidal bodies have also been observed due to groundwater connections (Wisniewski, 2014). The incidence of high tide flooding is increasing in the southeastern Atlantic coast region (Carter et al, 2018;NOAA, 2018), which has implications for stormwater management. For three coastal counties in SC where location of stormwater ponds was mapped, it was estimated that up to 20% of ponds were at or below the elevation of mean higher high water, indicating likelihood of tidal groundwater exchange .…”

Section: Geologic and Hydrologic Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stormwater Ponds in the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain: Hydrogeology, Contaminant Fate, and the Need for a Social-Ecological Framework

Beckingham

Callahan

Vulava

2019

Front. Environ. Sci.

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In lowland coastal regions of the southeastern United States, stormwater ponds are being built as the "green infrastructure" best management practice of choice for addressing the hydrologic changes associated with rapid urban and suburban development. In addition to dampening storm flows, stormwater ponds may provide pollution control and other ecosystem services. However, ponds are not native to this landscape. This review summarizes what is known about the effectiveness of these engineered ponds, which take many shapes and forms, in the context of hydrology, contaminant fate, and management. Research needs are identified and include evaluating pond performance and redesign options more comprehensively and applying a social-ecological framework for the future of stormwater pond management.

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Chapter 19 : Southeast. Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II

Cited by 56 publications

References 207 publications

Accounting for Adaptive Water Supply Management When Quantifying Climate and Land Cover Change Vulnerability

Accounting for Adaptive Water Supply Management When Quantifying Climate and Land Cover Change Vulnerability

Spatio-temporal variation of crop loss in the United States from 2001 to 2016

Stormwater Ponds in the Southeastern U.S. Coastal Plain: Hydrogeology, Contaminant Fate, and the Need for a Social-Ecological Framework

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