Despite agriculture’s importance in terms of its relationship
to poverty and welfare of the poorest households, the government finds
it increasingly difficult to find the fiscal space for budgetary
allocations for agriculture and agricultural RD. We hypothesise
that expansion of expenditures on agriculture is possible in the short
to medium run with a combination of reallocations and new taxation. We
argue that existing spending aimed towards the agriculture sector
includes very large outlays on implicit subsidies that are largely
unproductive. These costs include: subsidisation of gas for fertiliser
plants, which approach Rs 48 billion in gas subsidies to fertiliser
companies; the full costs of the infrastructure and operation and
maintenance of the irrigation system, which amount to Rs 166 billion per
year; and losses on wheat procurement, which have been about Rs 25
billion recently. On the taxation side, while agricultural producers are
not currently liable to pay tax on income, they do however pay indirect
taxes on agricultural inputs. Using a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), we
estimate agricultural producer pay about Rs 61 billion, mostly from GST
taxes on fertiliser. Using a Computable General Equilibrium model, we
show that agriculture could contribute further with an income tax on
agricultural income. With a ―low-rate-widebase‖ income tax of 15 percent
on non-poor, medium and large farms, as much as Rs 130 billion could be
raised, enough to cover, for example, a sizable portion of the operation
and maintenance cost of the irrigation system. JEL Classifications: D58,
E16, H20, H22, H23, Q10 Keywords: Agriculture, Fiscal Policy, Subsidies,
Taxation, General Equilibrium, Social Accounting Matrix,
Pakistan