Characteristics of Runoff Variations and Attribution Analysis in the Poyang Lake Basin over the Past 55 Years

Abstract

Spatial and temporal variations in hydrological series are affected by both climate change and human activities. A scientific understanding of the impacts of these two main factors on runoff will help to understand the response mechanism of the water cycle in a changing environment. This study focused on Poyang Lake Basin, which contains China’s largest freshwater lake. Several approaches, including the Mann-Kendall trend test, cumulative anomaly method, Hurst exponent analysis, and slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) method, were adopted to explore the characteristics of runoff variations and the respective impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff variations in the five subbasins. The results indicated that (1) from 1961 to 2015, the runoff throughout the basin fluctuated, and it decreased significantly in the 2000s. (2) Different baseline periods and measurement periods were identified for each subbasin to analyse the spatial and temporal responses of runoff to climate change and human activities. (3) The runoff of each subbasin will exhibit anti-persistent features with different persistence times in the future. (4) Compared with those in the baseline period, in the first measurement period, precipitation was the main factor driving the runoff increase in the Ganjiang, Fuhe, Xinjiang and Raohe subbasins, with contribution rates of 50.91–63.47%, and human activities played a supplementary role. However, in the second measurement period, as human activities intensified, they became the leading factor causing changes in runoff, with contribution rates between 59.57% and 92.49%. Considering water shortages and the intensification of human activities, the impacts of human activities on runoff variations will require more attention in the future.

Ecological Flow Response Analysis to a Typical Strong Hydrological Alteration River in China

“…The detailed results are displayed in Table 1. In fact, this conclusion was consistent with the research of Wang et al [39]. According to the detailed diagnosis results, only the jumping diagnosis showed a significant trend among the trend and the jumping diagnosis.…”

“…Second, DTVGM was employed to extend natural runoff series. Although distributed hydrological models such as SWAT and MIKE SHE have been used by researchers to restore natural runoff after hydrological alteration, DTVGM has significant advantages compared to these models [39]. DTVGM does not require much data, such as land use data.…”

Changes in Runoff Volumes of Inland Terminal Lake: A Case Study of Lake Daihai

“…SCRCQ method has a wide range of applications (Wang et al, 2012a(Wang et al, , 2014(Wang et al, , 2015(Wang et al, , 2017(Wang et al, , 2020, which can be summarized as follows (Wang, Yan, Yan, & Zhao, 2012): First, according to the statistical analysis method, the cumulative runoff, precipitation and evaporation curves are divided into time periods. The time period can be divided into a reference time period and a comparison time period, and by performing a linear fitting on the divided time periods the changes in runoff, precipitation and evaporation can be obtained.…”

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Hydrometeorological Factors in the Source Region of the Dongting Lake Basin, China

“…The turning point for increased annual rainfall occurred in 1993, while the turning point for decreased runoff occurred in 1983. From 1985 to 1990, there was a significant increase in water storage in the reservoirs within the Dongting Lake basin [56]. It is important to note that the influence of land use and land cover changes on runoff is primarily limited to the non-monsoon seasons, highlighting the complex interplay between climate change, human activities, and the hydrological dynamics of the region.…”