Characteristics of Synoptic Conditions for Heavy Snowfall in Western to Northeastern Japan Analyzed by the 5-km Regional Climate Ensemble Experiments

Kawase, Hiroaki; Sasai, T.; Yamazaki, Takeshi; Ito, Rui; Dairaku, Koji; Sugimoto, Shiori; Sasaki, Hirokazu; Murata, Akihiko; Nosaka, Masaya

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2018-022

Cited by 33 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The overestimation of snow cover in the 5km_HIST experiment is caused by the envelope-type high mountains (Kawase et al 2018a) and a lack of horizontal resolution for calculating the small-scale convections over the Sea of Japan (Kawase et al 2019a). Figure 2c-f shows future changes in the 15-year mean annual maximum snow cover projected by the 1km_2K and 1km_4K experiments.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, d4PDF20 has insufficient grid spacing to resolve the complex mountains of Japan. Kawase et al (2018a) conducted dynamical downscaling from several ensemble experiments in the d4PDF20 in the present climate using the nonhydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) (Sasaki et al 2008) with 5 km grid spacing (hereafter referred to as the 5km_HIST experiment). Based on the 5km_HIST experiment, they clarified that the geographical boundaries of extremely heavy snowfall events caused by two typical patterns-a cold air outbreak and an extratropical cyclone-are more clearly defined than those of other snowfall events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the 5km_HIST experiment, they clarified that the geographical boundaries of extremely heavy snowfall events caused by two typical patterns-a cold air outbreak and an extratropical cyclone-are more clearly defined than those of other snowfall events. As with Kawase et al (2018a), Sasai et al (2019) conducted dynamical downscaling from d4PDF20 in two future climates, assuming that the global mean temperatures are 2 K and 4 K warmer than those in the pre-industrial period (Mizuta et al 2017;Fujita et al 2019) (hereafter referred to as the 5km_2K and 5km_4K experiments, respectively). For 5km_2K and 5km_4K experiments, they selected two ensemble members from each sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in d4PDF, which has six SST patterns, and conducted a 31-year simulation for each ensemble member.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For 5km_2K and 5km_4K experiments, they selected two ensemble members from each sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in d4PDF, which has six SST patterns, and conducted a 31-year simulation for each ensemble member. Then, a 372-year simulation was obtained in each future climate as with the present climate (Kawase et al 2018a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan

Kawase

Yamazaki

Sugimoto

et al. 2020

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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To investigate future changes in snow cover and snowfall over mountainous areas in central Japan, we conducted regional climate projections using a high-resolution non-hydrostatic regional climate model (NHRCM) with 5 km and 1 km grid spacings. Boundary conditions are derived from the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) 20 km regional climate projections (d4PDF20). The d4PDF20 assumes two future climates when global mean surface air temperatures are approximately 2 K and 4 K warmer than in the preindustrial period. Experiments with 5 km grid spacing are conducted by NHRCM for 372 years in d4PDF20 in each climate. Experiments with 1 km grid spacing are performed focusing on 5 years with heavy, median, and light snow cover of mountainous areas in each climate. In the years with heavy snow cover in 2 K and 4 K warming climates, snowfall is enhanced from late December to February at more than 2000 m above sea level (mASL) in the northern parts of Japan's Northern Alps, resulting in heavy snow cover comparable to that in the present climate. Heavy daily snowfall remarkably increases due to global warming in the years with heavy snow cover. At low elevations below 500 mASL, snowfall decreases in all ranges of snowfall intensity in the 4 K warming climate, while the frequency of heavy daily snowfall increases in the 2 K warming climate. Precipitation is enhanced around the Japan-Sea Polarairmass Convergence Zone and the mountainous area facing the Sea of Japan, resulting in strengthened heavy snowfall at high elevations where the winter mean temperature is approximately − 10°C in the present climate. On the other hand, remarkable reductions in snow cover and snowfall are projected in years with light snow cover. Our results indicate that global warming causes heavy and light midwinter snowfalls at high elevations of Japan's Northern Alps that are more extreme than those in the present climate.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan

Kawase

Yamazaki

Sugimoto

et al. 2020

Prog Earth Planet Sci

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“…There were some sites with a small cold bias over the snowpack period even in the iSiB simulation. Kawase et al (2018) indicated that the cold bias tends to appear in the northeastern region of the main island during winter as a characteristic of simulations by NHRCM with the same 5-km grid spacing. However, from our simulations, the cold bias is relatively small in the Niigata region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Improvement of Snow Depth Reproduction in Japanese Urban Areas by the Inclusion of a Snowpack Scheme in the SPUC Model

Ito

Aoyagi

Hori

et al. 2018

Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

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Accurate simulation of urban snow accumulation/melting processes is important to provide reliable information about climate change in snowy urban areas. The Japan Meteorological Agency operates a square prism urban canopy (SPUC) model within their regional model to simulate the urban atmosphere. However, presently, this model takes no account of snow processes. Therefore, in this study, we enhanced the SPUC by introducing a snowpack scheme, and assessed the simulated snow over Japanese urban areas by comparing the snow depths from the enhanced SPUC and those from a simple biosphere (iSiB) model with the observations. Snowpack schemes based on two approaches were implemented. The diagnostic approach (sSPUCdgn) uses empirical factors for snow temperature and melting/freezing amounts and the Penman equation for heat fluxes, whereas the prognostic

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Effects of temperature on seed dormancy and germination of the coastal dune plant Viola grayi: germination phenology and responses to winter warming

Kuroda

Sawada

2022

American J of Botany

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Premise In temperate sand dunes, rising air temperature from climate change could not only further elevate surface soil temperatures during summers, but also drastically change the range of soil temperatures in other seasons. Winter warming may shift the timing of seed germination of dune species that require cold stratification for dormancy release. Methods We assessed the effects of temperature on dormancy and germination of Viola grayi seeds and evaluated whether winter warming could affect its germination phenology by conducting germination experiments and analyzing soil temperature data in cold and warm winters. Results Viola grayi seeds were dormant when dispersed in spring. One‐month moist‐chilling treatment (4°C) effectively released dormancy, while short, intermittent lower temperatures (alternating 20°/5°C) did not. Continuous higher temperatures induced secondary dormancy in nondormant seeds. During a cold, snowy winter, the surface soil temperatures of the sand dune remained at 0°–2°C for approximately 1 month owing to the accumulated snow, while the period of such stable low soil temperatures was much shorter during a warm, less‐snowy winter, and the highest soil temperature reached 20°–25°C. These results suggest that dispersed seeds germinate in the following spring after winter chilling, but they may remain dormant after warm winters. Conclusions With winter warming, seed dormancy of V. grayi seeds could be prolonged and the associated germination delayed. Assessing the minimum requirements for dormancy release and the potential to form persistent soil seed banks is important for judging the necessity and urgency of conservation efforts for temperate dune species.

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Characteristics of Synoptic Conditions for Heavy Snowfall in Western to Northeastern Japan Analyzed by the 5-km Regional Climate Ensemble Experiments

Cited by 33 publications

References 33 publications

Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan

Changes in extremely heavy and light snow-cover winters due to global warming over high mountainous areas in central Japan

Improvement of Snow Depth Reproduction in Japanese Urban Areas by the Inclusion of a Snowpack Scheme in the SPUC Model

Effects of temperature on seed dormancy and germination of the coastal dune plant Viola grayi: germination phenology and responses to winter warming

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