21Global climate change is the greatest environmental challenge of the modern era. The impacts of 22 climate change are increasingly well understood, and have already begun to materialize across 23 diverse ecosystems and organisms. Bumble bees (Bombus) are suspected to be highly sensitive to 24 climate change as they are predominately adapted to temperate and alpine environments. In this 25 study, we determine which bumble bee species are most vulnerable to climate change in the 26 Pacific Northwest. The Pacific Northwest is a topographically complex landscape that is 27 punctuated by two major mountain ranges and a labyrinth of offshore islands in the Salish Sea. 28 Using standardized survey methods, our study documents the occurrence of 15 bumble bee 29 species across 23 field sites in seven federal parks, historical sites, and monuments. Our results
30show that bumble bee community richness and diversity increases along an altitude gradient in 31 these protected areas. Furthermore, NMDS analysis reveals that high altitude environments are 32 composed of a unique group of bumble bee species relative to low altitude environments.
33Finally, based on an analysis of species distributions models that aggregate bioclimatic data from 34 global circulation climate models with preserved specimen records, we discover that 80% of the 35 bumble bee species detected in our survey are poised to undergo habitat suitability (HS) loss 36 within the next 50 years. Species primarily found in high altitude environments namely B. 37 vandykei, B. sylvicola, and B. bifarius are projected to incur a mean HS loss of 63%, 59%, and 38 30% within the federally protected areas, respectively. While the implementation of climate 39 change policies continue to be a significant challenge, the development of mitigation strategies to 40 conserve the most vulnerable species may be a tractable option for land managers and 41 stakeholders of protected areas. Our study meets this need by identifying which species and 42 communities are most sensitive to climate change.43 44 45 Pollinator communities worldwide are undergoing dramatic changes in both abundance 46 and composition that may put pollination service at risk in many terrestrial ecosystems [1]. These 47 changes may not solely be unidirectional declines in species abundance, but can manifest as 48 shifts in geographic range, increases in abundance where new habitat is formed, or shifts in 49 phenology [2-4]. To date, documented changes in pollinator communities have been attributed to 50 many factors, including pathogen outbreaks, pesticides, climate change, introduced species, and 51 land-use change [4-9]. Identifying the factors affecting pollinator communities can be 52 challenging as most strategies investigate distinct taxonomic groups (guilds) [10], or attempt to 53 isolate specific threats and measure a single species' responses to the threat in question [2-4,11].54However, given the negative impacts of rapid global change [1,5], it is imperative to identify 55 which pollinator ...