Characterizing Groundwater Potential Using GIS-Based Machine Learning Model in Chihe River Basin, China

Abstract

Mapping of groundwater potential over space, built by synergizing environmental variables and machine learning models, was of great significance for regional water resources management. Taking the Chihe River basin in Anhui province as an example, thirteen influence factors were used to predict the spatial distribution of groundwater, including elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), drainage density, distance to rivers, distance to faults, lithology, soil type, land use, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The potential of groundwater resource in this region was predicted using GIS-based machine learning models, including logistic regression (LR), deep neural networks (DNN), and random forest (RF) model. Then, the accuracy of prediction results was evaluated by calculating the RMSE, MAE and R evaluation index. The results show that there is no collinearity among the 13 environmental impact factors, which can provide corresponding environmental variables for the evaluation of regional groundwater potential. Machine learning models show that groundwater potential is concentrated in moderate to high potential areas. Among them, the moderate to the high potential of this area accounted for 81.14% in the LR model, 90.36% and 87.55% in the DNN model and the RF model, respectively. According to the result of these evaluation indexes, the three models all have high prediction accuracy, among which the LR model performs more prominently. The good prediction capabilities of these machine learning technologies can provide a reliable scientific basis for spatial prediction of groundwater potential and management of water resources.