Characterizing low‐lying coastal upland forests to predict future landward marsh expansion

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) is causing vegetation regime shifts on both the seaward and landward sides of many coastal ecosystems, with the eastern coast of North America experiencing accelerated impacts due to land subsidence and the weakening of the Gulf Stream. Tidal wetland ecosystems, known for their significant carbon storage capacity, are crucial but vulnerable blue carbon habitats. Recent observations suggest that SLR rates may exceed the threshold for elevation gain primarily through vertical accretion in many coastal regions. Therefore, research has focused on mapping the upslope migration of marshes into suitable adjacent lands, as this landward gain may be the most salient process for estimating future wetland resiliency to accelerated rates of SLR. However, our understanding of coastal vegetation characteristics and dynamics in response to SLR is limited due to a lack of in situ data and effective mapping strategies for delineating the boundaries, or ecotones, of these complex coastal ecosystems. In order to effectively study these transitioning ecosystems, it is necessary to employ reliable and scalable landscape metrics that can differentiate between marsh and coastal forests. As such, integrating vegetation structure metrics from light detection and ranging (lidar) could enhance traditional mapping strategies compared to using optical data alone. Here, we used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to measure changes in forest structure along elevation gradients that may be indicative of degradation associated with increased inundation in the Delaware Bay estuary. We analyzed a set of TLS‐derived forest structure metrics to investigate their relationships with elevation, specifically seeking those that showed consistent change from the forest edge to the interior. Our findings revealed a consistent pattern between elevation and the plant area index (PAI), a metric that holds potential for enhancing the delineation of complex coastal ecosystem boundaries, particularly in relation to landward marsh migration. This work provides support for utilizing lidar‐derived forest structural metrics to enable a more accurate assessment of future marsh landscapes and the overall coastal carbon sink under accelerated SLR conditions.