Characterizing the highest tropical cyclone frequency in the Western North Pacific since 1984

Basconcillo, Joseph; Cha, Eui-Young; Moon, Il‐Ju

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-93824-2

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…We anticipate plausible links between the MT and other predictors for PHL and SCS TCs (not described here). All these are consistent with the previous findings that a strengthening or an eastward shift of the MT encourages more TCs to form in the south-eastern sector of the basin, and a weakening or westward-shift of the MT favors more TCs to form in the western sector (Basconcillo et al, 2021;Chen et al, 2019;Molinari & Vollaro, 2013;Teng et al, 2021;Wu et al, 2012). The merit of the TC predictors is that they are not only associated with the genesis conditions (e.g., the MT) but also related to the background steering winds in which TCs are embedded.…”

Section: Phl Tc Predictorssupporting

confidence: 93%

“…From the preseason to peak‐season, the predictor 1‐related environmental conditions strengthen (Figures 6e–6h). In the tropical Pacific, the east‐to‐west SST gradients and low‐level easterly wind anomalies become stronger in the peak‐season, indicating a strengthening or westward shift of the summer Monsoon Trough (MT) (e.g., Basconcillo et al., 2021; Chen et al., 2019; Li et al., 2017; Teng et al., 2021). In short, with positive anomalies of predictor 1, the peak‐season thermodynamic and ventilating conditions are evidently more favorable for TCs to form in the SCS and PHL regions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The predictor 2‐associated environment is depicted by warm SST and low‐level westerly wind anomalies in the central tropical Pacific, suggesting enhanced zonal wind‐SST feedback with a deeper oceanic thermocline and less upwelling (Cane et al., 1986). The warm SST and westerly wind anomalies could correspond to an eastward shift of the MT (Basconcillo et al., 2021; Chen et al., 2019; Molinari & Vollaro, 2013; Teng et al., 2021; Wu et al., 2012), and they are closely related to the PMM pattern (Chiang & Vimont, 2004). The correlation between predictor 2 and the preseason PMM index is r = 0.69.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Approach to Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Southeast Asia Tropical Cyclone Occurrence

Feng

Hodges

Hoang³

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have large impacts over land and marginal seas in the western North Pacific (WNP), especially in the Southeast Asia (SEA) region where countries, such as the Philippines and Vietnam, are among the most exposed in the world to TC-related hazards. Each year there are over 20 TCs on average affecting SEA, with about 50% of them occurring in the peak-season of July-September (JAS), where the TC season is usually defined as June-November. Accurate prediction of peak-season SEA TCs up to several months ahead can provide an early warning service, which may significantly reduce the damage from TCs to economic activity and social welfare.Dynamical general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed as a useful tool for seasonal TC prediction, especially in recent years with the development of high-resolution climate models related to the rapidly increased computing capability. Dynamical seasonal forecast systems have been developed in the major meteorological

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Section: Phl Tc Predictorssupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A New Approach to Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Southeast Asia Tropical Cyclone Occurrence

Feng

Hodges

Hoang³

et al. 2022

JGR Atmospheres

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“…The WNP subtropical high and WNP summer monsoon could have profound effects on WNP TC activities [24,[37][38][39][40][41]. The observed changes of low-level atmospheric circulations (Figures 4 and 5) may be closely related to the changes of WNP subtropical highs and monsoons.…”

Section: Changing Tendencies In Wnp Subtropical High and Monsoonmentioning

confidence: 90%

A Contrast of Recent Changing Tendencies in Genesis Productivity of Tropical Cloud Clusters over the Western North Pacific in May and October

Peng

Wang

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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Tropical cloud clusters (TCCs) are embryos of tropical cyclones (TCs) and may have the potential to develop into TCs. The genesis productivity (GP) of TCCs is used to quantify the proportion of TCCs that can evolve into TCs. Recent studies have revealed a decrease in GP of western North Pacific (WNP) TCCs during the extended boreal summer (July–October) since 1998. Here, we show that the changing tendencies in GP of WNP TCCs have obvious seasonality. Although most months could see recent decreases in GP of WNP TCCs, with October experiencing the strongest decreasing trend, May is the only month with a significant recent increasing trend. The opposite changing tendencies in May and October could be attributed to different changes in low-level atmospheric circulation anomalies triggered by different sea surface temperature (SST) configurations across the tropical oceans. In May, stronger SST warming in the tropical western Pacific could prompt increased anomalous westerlies associated with anomalous cyclonic circulation, accompanied by the weakening of the WNP subtropical high and the strengthening of the WNP monsoon. Such changes in background atmospheric circulations could favor the enhancement of atmospheric eddy kinetic energy and barotropic energy conversions, resulting in a recent intensified GP of WNP TCCs in May. In October, stronger SST warming in the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans contributed to anomalous easterlies over the tropical WNP associated with anomalous anticyclonic circulation, giving rise to the suppressed atmospheric eddy kinetic energy and recent weakened GP of WNP TCCs. These results highlight the seasonality in recent changing tendencies in the GP of WNP TCCs and associated large-scale atmospheric-oceanic conditions.

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“…Another interesting aspect of the ISM circulation interaction with the WNP typhoons is related to the occurrence of monsoon 'breaks' over India, which typically coincide with periods of WNP typhoons crossing over to the north of 30 o N between the 110 o E and 140 o E longitudes (Raman, 1955, Vinay Kumar andKrishnan, 2005). A case in point is the recent example of the record breaking number of 18 TCs that were witnessed over the WNP during the boreal summer of 2018 (Gao et al 2020;Basconcillo et al 2021, Fig. 1), even as the Indian subcontinent was reeling through a de cient monsoon rainy season (Sunitha Devi et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Enhanced activity of West North Pacific typhoons in response to anthropogenically-forced weakening of the Indian summer monsoon

Sagar

Krishnan

Sabin

2022

Preprint

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The West North Pacific (WNP) is a breeding ground for tropical cyclones (TC) all through the year with peak activity during August-September, in contrast to the North Indian Ocean where tropical cyclones (TC) are observed mainly during April-June and October-December but suppressed in July-August due to the strong vertical wind shear of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). Interannual variations in the WNP tropical cyclones (typhoons) are known to be closely linked to El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with higher number of typhoons forming during El Nino phases as compared to La Nina; however the response of WNP typhoon to human-induced climate change is not well understood. Here, we compare two sets of high-resolution climate model simulations for the historical period 1951-2005 viz., HIST [includes both natural (solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols) and anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gasses (GHG), aerosols and land use land cover changes)] and HISTNAT (natural-only forcing) to understand the influence of climate change on the ISM and WNP typhoon activity. It is found that an anthropogenically-forced weakening of the ISM circulation, largely due to the influence of Northern Hemispheric aerosols which oppose the GHG forcing, tends to significantly enhance the genesis potential of WNP typhoons. Our results suggest that a forced weakening of the ISM circulation reorients the large-scale flow over the tropical Indo-Pacific in a manner that is conducive for enhanced WNP typhoon genesis through enrichment of low-level relative vorticity, while the intensified mid-latitude westerlies over the Far East and North Pacific region steer the WNP typhoons to move northward with recurving tracks. Additionally the area of extremely low sea-level pressure (SLP) around Taiwan and mainland China is substantially larger in the anthropogenically- forced simulation as compared to the natural run.

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Characterizing the highest tropical cyclone frequency in the Western North Pacific since 1984

Cited by 19 publications

References 21 publications

A New Approach to Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Southeast Asia Tropical Cyclone Occurrence

A New Approach to Skillful Seasonal Prediction of Southeast Asia Tropical Cyclone Occurrence

A Contrast of Recent Changing Tendencies in Genesis Productivity of Tropical Cloud Clusters over the Western North Pacific in May and October

Enhanced activity of West North Pacific typhoons in response to anthropogenically-forced weakening of the Indian summer monsoon

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