CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland – Bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

Abstract

Abstract. The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections – Bias Corrected Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to 5 × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971–2000) and two future horizons (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) assuming two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase constantly by 1 °C until 2021–2050 and by 2 °C until 2071–2100 assuming the RCP4.5, which is accelerating assuming the RCP8.5 scenario and can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071–2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 % to 10 % and by 8 % to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent exhibiting spatial variations which depends on the selected season, location, future horizon and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between −7 % and +40 %, expected to occur in summer assuming the RCP4.5 scenarios and in winter assuming the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at​ ​http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.

Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

“…They exhibit spatial variations, depending on the future horizon, the emission scenario, as well as the season and the location of interest. The overall range of the 90% confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to vary in the range between 7% (in summer, under RCP4.5) and 40% (in winter, under RCP8.5), for far future projection horizon (Mezghani et al 2017).…”

“…Szwed et al (2018) examined the projections of maximum snow cover depth in Poland for near and remote future, under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The bias-adjusted daily temperature and precipitation projections (Mezghani et al 2017) were used as the input data to the seNorge (www.seNor ge.no) snow model to generate future daily snow conditions. Projections suggest that the maximum snow depth may decrease by both future horizons of relevance and under both RCPs.…”

“…The data are available in open access at online data repository-4TU Centre for Research Data https ://data.4tu.nl/ repos itory / (or Google search: CHASE-PL data). Selected data were published in high-impact, open access, data journals (Berezowski et al 2016;Mezghani et al 2017). The dataset of model outputs based on all simulations, driven by the results of bias-corrected models in the EURO-CORDEX initiative (Mezghani et al 2016), called CHASE-PL-future hydrology (CPL-FH), is also publicly available (Piniewski et al 2017f).…”

Effect of climate change on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in Poland

“…The first step included calibration and validation of the model as driven by interpolated meteorological data from the Polish and European monitoring network (Berezowski et al, 2016). In the second step, the climate projections data derived from Mezghani et al (2017) were used as a forcing for both historical and future periods.…”

Sediment load variability in response to climate and land use changes in a Carpathian catchment (Raba River, Poland)

“…Their reference point is the baseline scenario (0), which is a simulation of the Raba River model that passed the calibration procedure. To account for the predicted climate changes (precipitation and temperature) for two future time horizons (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) based on RCP4.5, the results of the dynamical downscaling for the area of Poland were taken into consideration (Mezghani et al 2017;Climateimpact 2019). Accordingly, two precipitation (P1 and P2) and two temperature (T1 and T2) scenarios have been created ( Table 1).…”