Cheap talk and credibility: The consequences of confidence and accuracy on advisor credibility and persuasiveness

Sah, Sunita; Moore, Don A.; MacCoun, Robert J.

doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2013.02.001

Cited by 103 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…One key difference between our approach and theirs is that our studies feature people displaying nonverbal signals of confidence without the explicit and falsifiable claims of being right on a particular item. If, in everyday life, people are more likely to signal confidence through nonverbal and paraverbal signals (Anderson & Kilduff, 2009), then it might be easier to get away with overconfidence than Tenney's results suggest (Sah, Moore, & MacCoun, 2013).…”

Section: The Origins Of Overconfidencementioning

confidence: 92%

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

Kennedy

Anderson

Moore

2013

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

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136

101

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Section: The Origins Of Overconfidencementioning

confidence: 92%

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

Kennedy

Anderson

Moore

2013

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Self Cite

136

101

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“…Unfortunately, Sah, Moore, and MacCoun ( 2013 ) recently established an important boundary condition on the discrediting effect of overconfi dence. Importantly, our results are consistent with the presumptionof-calibration logic shown in Fig.…”

Section: Confi Dence and Calibration As Persuasive Cuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As Sah et al ( 2013 ) have suggested, for experts and consumers to be bound by evidentiary considerations, they each need an accurate assessment of calibration , which in turn requires an assessment of how the expert's confi dence tracks his or her accuracy or validity. That is a tall order.…”

Section: A Normative Perspective: the Epistemic Contractmentioning

confidence: 99%

Motivating Cooperation and Compliance with Authority

Bornstein¹,

Tomkins²

2015

Nebraska Symposium on Motivation

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The Nebraska Symposium on Motivation has been sponsored by the Department of Psychology at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln since 1953. Each year the Symposium invites leading scholars from around the world on a topic of current interest in psychology for a conference at the University followed by publication of an edited volume. 2012 2-year Impact Factor: .571 2012 5-year Impact Factor: 1.581More information about this series at

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“…Indeed, it appears that in many situations confidence is relied upon unless objective feedback on performance is readily available (Tenney et al, 2007;Tenney, Spellman, & MacCoun, 2008). Ironically, however, people are less motivated to seek out performance information when advisors are confident, making confidence a double-threat (Sah, Moore, & MacCoun, 2013). In fact, even when performance feedback shows that two advisors are equally accurate, people prefer the more confident advisor, despite being aware that the advisor's confidence is higher than is warranted (Price & Stone, 2004;Radzevick & Moore , 2011).…”

Section: Social Benefitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…People may infer that confidence reflects some knowledge about the advisor's superior ability that simply has not manifested itself in this particular encounter. It is only when individuals' confidence on specific statements is revealed to be dramatically out of line with their accuracy that the confidence heuristic seems to be abandoned (Sah et al, 2013;Tenney et al, 2007Tenney et al, , 2008 If confidence is an outward reflection of our assessment of our own abilities, people who have formed overly positive self-perceptions of their abilities should also feel genuinely confident. If they act in ways that communicate this increased confidence to others, they may benefit from the powerful interpersonal effects of the confidence heuristic.…”

Section: Social Benefitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An investigation of the adaptive functions of overconfidence

Murphy¹

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The research presented in this thesis explores the question of whether overconfidence provides adaptive benefits. Chapter 1 presents the arguments for three adaptive accounts of overconfidence; that it leads to mental health benefits, increased motivation, and positive social outcomes. It then outlines the forms of measurement needed to properly test these adaptive accounts, and reviews the extant literature. Chapter 2 reports a longitudinal study that tested the effects of two forms of overconfidence (athletic and intellectual) on each of the three adaptive outcomes. Results from this study were mixed, with both forms of overconfidence showing positive cross-sectional associations with mental health outcomes, but largely null effects over time. Overconfidence in sporting ability was strongly associated with increased effort and improvement in sport over time, as well as increased popularity. In contrast, intellectual overconfidence had largely null effects on effort, improvement, or social success over time. Together, the results from Chapter 2 provide evidence that at least one form of overconfidence conferred adaptive benefits to motivation and social success, while results on mental health were more ambiguous. Importantly, this study found no evidence for the oft-cited possibility that overconfidence leads to deleterious outcomes over time.Chapter 3 extends the investigation of the adaptive functions of overconfidence on social success, testing whether overconfidence helps to win potential romantic partners rather than just friends. In Study 1, overconfident people were perceived as more confident in their dating profiles, and this perceived confidence predicted increased romantic desirability.Study 2 revealed that overconfident people also tend to be perceived as arrogant, however, which counteracted the positive effects of perceived confidence. Study 3 supported the idea that overconfidence might confer an advantage in intrasexual competition, as people were less likely to compete with overconfident individuals due to their perceived confidence and arrogance. Study 4 showed that overconfident raters were themselves more likely to choose 3 to compete for romantic partners. In Study 5, agent-based modeling incorporating the coefficients from these prior studies suggested that overconfidence facilitates mate acquisition in the presence of intrasexual competition. Together, the results of Chapters 2 and 3 suggests that overconfidence has social benefits in at least some settings, and that these are likely due to the increased perceptions of confidence that it creates.Chapter 4 provides a discussion of the findings, and in particular explores potential reasons for the different effects of intellectual and athletic overconfidence in Chapter 2, and the different pattern of findings with athletic overconfidence in Chapter 2 and the primarily intellectual measure of overconfidence used in Chapter 3. Future directions of research that could disambiguate the possible explanations are suggested, and further wo...

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Cheap talk and credibility: The consequences of confidence and accuracy on advisor credibility and persuasiveness

Cited by 103 publications

References 51 publications

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

Motivating Cooperation and Compliance with Authority

An investigation of the adaptive functions of overconfidence

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