Chemical effects on ecological interactions within a model-experiment loop

Abstract

We propose in this paper a method to assess the effects of a contaminant on a micro-ecosystem, integrating the population dynamics and the interactions between species. For that, we developed a dynamic model to describe the functioning of a microcosm exposed to a contaminant and to discriminate direct and indirect effects. Then, we get back from modelling to experimentation in order to identify which of the collected data have really been necessary and sufficient to estimate model parameters in order to propose a more efficient experimental design for further investigations. We illustrated our approach using a 2-L laboratory microcosm involving three species (the duckweed Lemna minor, the microalgae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata and the daphnids Daphnia magna) exposed to cadmium contamination. We modelled the dynamics of the three species and their interactions using a mechanistic model based on coupled ordinary differential equations. The main processes occurring in this three-species microcosm were thus formalized, including growth and settling of algae, growth of duckweeds, interspecific competition between algae and duckweeds, growth, survival and grazing of daphnids, as well as cadmium effects. We estimated model parameters by Bayesian inference, using simultaneously all the data issued from multiple laboratory experiments specifically conducted for this study. Cadmium concentrations ranged between 0 and 50 mug.L-1. For all parameters of our model, we obtained biologically realistic values and reasonable uncertainties. The cascade of cadmium effects, both direct and indirect, was identified. Critical effect concentrations were provided for the life history traits of each species. An example of experimental design adapted to this kind a microcosm was also proposed. This approach appears promising when studying contaminant effects on ecosystem functioning.