China’s impact on the European Union’s Arctic policy: critical junctures, crossovers, and geographic shifts

Abstract

In 2008, the European Commission perceived the European Union (EU) in an excellent position to collaborate with the five Euro-Arctic states and its strategic partners Canada, Russia, and the USA to shape Arctic governance in the fast-changing environment. However, the Arctic coastal states rejected the EU’s multilateral governance approach, while China has emerged as a significant factor in the Arctic. In 2018, China announced the Polar Silk Road to connect East Asia with Europe via Arctic shipping and other connectivity projects. In 2019, the EU started to perceive China as a systemic rival concerning the Belt and Road Initiative. What is the impact of China on the EU’s Arctic policies in the Euro-Arctic environment? What are the prospects for collaboration between the EU and China on joint issues? This paper applies process tracing to analyse China’s and the EU’s Arctic socialization in the early twenty-first century at three critical junctures of Arctic politics. At these junctures, the paper introduces the Arctic situation and the emerging problems, development in agenda setting, the policy processes, and the outcomes of the EU’s and China’s Arctic approaches. It argues that China’s rise as a maritime and Arctic power and its close relations with Russia along the Northern Sea Route shaped the EU’s Arctic policies and their shift towards the Barents sub-Arctic region. Implications are more interaction among both there, as China’s Polar Silk Road might also challenge the EU’s regulatory approach in the Euro-Arctic.

China's Arctic Aspirations and Polar Silk Road: Implications for Great Power Competition

“…China's Arctic objectives are shaped by an amalgamation of economic, strategic, and environmental factors. Economically, the Arctic is conjectured to harbor substantial untapped resources such as oil, gas, and valuable minerals (Biedermann, 2021). Strategically, the region offers a maritime shortcut-the Northern Sea Route-promising a significant in time between East Asia and Europe.…”

“…Concurrently, the European Union's Arctic strategy is also gravitating towards the Barents region, where it maintains a robust institutional presence, and where Denmark and Iceland's roles are comparatively diminished. The Barents region, rich in minerals-including rare earth elements-and marine protein, is not only the most economically promising sub-region of the Arctic but also the most viable channel for trans-Arctic shipping, per the Northern Sea Route's current trajectory (Biedermann, 2021).…”

“…Moreover, the interaction of the EU with other major powers, notably China and Russia, has a significant bearing on its Arctic policy. The EU exercises caution concerning China's expanding Arctic footprint, aiming to balance economic interactions with China while remaining committed to upholding international laws and norms in the region (Biedermann, 2021). Furthermore, the EU's relations with Russia, a state with significant Arctic presence, have been affected by geopolitical tensions, which add another layer of complexity to the EU's Arctic approach (Skripnikova & Raspotnik, 2019).…”