China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential

Abstract

Forecasts indicate that China’s non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO2 GHG emissions in China have focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China’s non-CO2 GHGs under a Mitigation Scenario whereby today’s cost-effective and technologically feasible CO2 and non-CO2 mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO2 GHG emissions are driven largely by industrial and agricultural sources and that China could reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023. Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO2 GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective mitigation potentials identified in this study.

Spatial Variation of Reactive Nitrogen Emissions From China's Croplands Codetermined by Regional Urbanization and Its Feedback to Global Climate Change

“…China is the world's largest producer of croplands Ngr emissions. Yet current estimates of China's croplands Ngr emissions are highly uncertain, with NH 3 emissions ranging from 2.5 to 9.0 Tg N·yr −1 , N 2 O emissions ranging from 0.40 to 0.64 Tg N·yr −1 , and NO x ranging from 0.07 to 0.40 Tg N·yr −1 across studies ( supporting information Table S1) (Chen et al, 2016; Cui et al, 2013; EDGAR v4.3.2, 2017; Fu et al, 2015; Gu et al, 2015; H. Wu, Wang, et al, 2018; Kang et al, 2016; Lin et al, 2019; Luo et al, 2018; M. R. Wang et al, 2017; NDRC, 2017; Ouyang et al, 2018; Paulot et al, 2014; Qu et al, 2017; Saikawa et al, 2014; X. Huang et al, 2012; Y. Huang & Li, 2014; Zhang et al, 2017, 2018; Zhou et al, 2014, 2016). This uncertainty is attributed to differences among methodologies, data on socioeconomic activities, and the emission factors (EFs) that relate agricultural activities (e.g., fertilizer usage) to soil Ngr emissions (H. Wu, Wang, et al, 2018; Zhan et al, 2019).…”

“…Yet current estimates of China's croplands Ngr emissions are highly uncertain, with NH 3 emissions ranging from 2.5 to 9.0 Tg N•yr −1 , N 2 O emissions ranging from 0.40 to 0.64 Tg N•yr −1 , and NO x ranging from 0.07 to 0.40 Tg N•yr −1 across studies ( supporting information Table S1) Cui et al, 2013;EDGAR v4.3.2, 2017;Fu et al, 2015;Gu et al, 2015;H. Wu, Wang, et al, 2018;Kang et al, 2016;Lin et al, 2019;Luo et al, 2018;M. R. Wang et al, 2017;NDRC, 2017;Ouyang et al, 2018;Paulot et al, 2014;Qu et al, 2017;Saikawa et al, 2014;X.…”

Assessing Methane Emissions From the Natural Gas Industry: Reviewing the Case of China in a Comparative Framework

“…Fourteenth five-year plan and outline of long-term objectives for 2035 2021 Putting methane under greenhouse gas control policies [69] In the new stage of addressing climate change, oil and gas enterprises tend to be more willing to adopt methane emissions controls. In the United States, oil and gas companies voluntarily adopted emission reduction technologies to control methane emissions [70]. This relationship then developed into the natural gas Star program, which promoted the sharing of methane emissions reduction technical information throughout the industry and avoided methane emissions of more than 526 MMT CO2e [71].…”

Transition towards energy generation from renewable sources in the People’s Republic of China

“…There are several reasons why the authorities of the People's Republic of China decided to implement new strategy and actions regarding gradual energy transition towards more 'green sources'. First of all, since China introduced a new economic development model (called Gǎigé kāifàng -the opening of China) in 1978, a rapid development of this economy (but still based on smokestack industry) was possible, but it also caused many contingent effects such as increasing urbanization and overpopulation which resulted in the growth of pollution emission and natural environment devastation in the XXI century (Lin, Khanna, Liu, Teng, and Wang 2019).…”

“…demonstrates how carbon dioxide emission has flattened over the last years. China is still indisputably the biggest world energy consumer and the largest emitter of toxic and environmentally harmful gases (Lin et al, 2019). Hence, greenhouse gases limitation is one of the key reasons for the increasing importance of renewable energy sources (including among others methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O)).…”