China Vehicle Fleet Model: Estimation of Vehicle Stocks, Usage, Emissions, and Energy Use - Model Description, Technical Documentation, and User Guide

Lü, Zifeng; Zhou, Yan; Cai, Hao; Wang, Michael; He, Xin; Przesmitzki, Steven

doi:10.2172/1483998

Cited by 19 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Per-capita income has been revealed to be the primary factor influencing the car ownership rate (Dargay and Gately 1999;Jong et al 2004). In our previous work, we developed a car stock projection model for China that simulates the private car ownership on an income-level basis by taking car purchase prices into account Lu et al 2018). The total private car stock in year m (Stock m ) is calculated by:…”

Section: Projection Of Private Car Stockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…VPI reflects the differences in car prices over the years and is estimated as a ratio of car prices in year m to those of the same models in the year 2004. VPP is used in the car ownership function s(VPP m ) because it represents the car-priceadjusted income level and can better model car ownership growth in China, where vehicle prices, incomes, and inflation have great disparities Lu et al 2018).…”

Section: Projection Of Private Car Stockmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The low, medium, and high estimates correspond to EIA's low, reference, and high economic development scenarios, respectively. VPI values are obtained from previous studies Lu et al 2018), in which the future VPI was estimated based on a comparison of the historical car price trend for the United States and China. Car prices in China decreased dramatically (approximately 80%) since 1997 Lu et al 2018), which is similar to the trend of the early motorization stage of the USA from 1900 to 2020 (Williams et al 2017).…”

Section: Data For Population Per-capita Disposable Income Vehicle Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A number of studies have attempted to assess car growth in China (He et al 2005;Hsieh et al 2018;Huo et al 2007;Kobos et al 2003;Wang and He 2000;Wang et al 2006;Yan and Crookes 2009). In these studies, a widely recognized method of projecting private car stocks has been to assume an S-curve growth pattern of vehicle ownership that increases slowly in the beginning when economic levels are low, rises steeply subsequently, and gradually approaches a saturation level (Lu et al 2018). For example, Wang and He (2000) projected the vehicle stock in China based on historical reviews of the growth patterns of per-capita vehicle ownership versus per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) in developed countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The car ownership saturation level can be affected by factors such as population density, urban development patterns, and government's decisions to control car stock. In previous studies, a saturation level in the range of 200-800 cars per thousand people was normally selected for China (Dargay and Gately 1999;He et al 2005;Kobos et al 2003;Lu et al 2018;Wang et al 2006). For example, assumed two saturation levels in their car ownership growth model that were close to European (~500 cars per thousand people) and Japanese (~400 cars per thousand people) growth patterns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future private car stock in China: current growth pattern and effects of car sales restriction

Gan

Lü

Cai

et al. 2019

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Car stock projection is essential to evaluating the energy and environmental impacts of private cars in China. Since the private car ownership rate in China has not reached its saturation level, limited and outdated data used in previous studies has resulted in high uncertainties regarding the functions of car ownership and significantly reduced the robustness of the projection of private car stocks. In this work, we estimate China's current growth pattern of private car ownership by analyzing more than 6300 pairs of private car ownership and income data collected from various official statistics at the national, provincial, and city levels in the period of 1997-2017. The dataset covers a much wider per-capita disposable income range than national-level data alone and allows us to make satisfactory projections of private car stocks in China up to 2040. We project that the private car stock in China could reach 403 million in 2040, if the current growth pattern of car ownership continues. Significant discrepancies in private car ownership curves are observed for cities with and without car sales restrictions. Without car sales restrictions, we estimate that the private car stock would be even higher at 455 million by 2040, demonstrating the effectiveness of the current restriction policy in controlling car stocks in China. We further quantify the potential impacts of car sales restrictions on future car stock levels by implementing hypothetical national car sales caps. Results show that, although the private car stocks would still continue to grow before 2030, the stock levels would be stable at~280 and~350 million by 2040 for scenarios of 20 and 25 million sales caps, respectively. The impact of private car stock growth on energy consumption in China is also examined. Pump-to-wheels energy consumption of the private car fleet is projected to be 131, 147, 90, and 113 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2040 for scenarios of the current growth pattern, no sales restriction, the 20 million sales cap, and the 25 million sales cap, respectively. Analysis reveals that private car sales restriction and vehicle population growth control could be an effective strategy for energy consumption reduction (thus greenhouse gas emission mitigation) in China, although the development of the automotive industry may be restrained.

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Section: Projection Of Private Car Stockmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Projection Of Private Car Stockmentioning

confidence: 99%