Abstract-We investigate the impact of noise trader sentiment on the formation of expected returns and volatility in the context of the frontier stock market of Bangladesh. Empirical results based on a GARCH-in-mean framework show that shifts in investor sentiment are significantly positively correlated with excess market returns. Evidence of this direct impact of changes in sentiment on expected returns is robust across sample periods and alternative measures of sentiment we use in the analysis. In addition, we find that the magnitude of bullish or bearish sentiment changes also exerts an indirect effect on expected returns through its asymmetric influence on the conditional volatility process. Overall, our results suggest that shifts in investor sentiment in the market represent a systematic risk factor that is priced in equilibrium.Index Terms-Investor sentiment, volatility, excess returns.
I. INTRODUCTIONWe undertake an empirical investigation into the potential impact of trading behavior of uninformed investors on the stock price dynamics of a frontier stock market. Unlike that of informed investors, trading decisions of uninformed investors are driven by sentiment which is not justified by currently available fundamental information about future cash flows and investment risk.At least since John Maynard Keynes' [1] use of the analogy of a -beauty contest‖ to illustrate investor behavior, economists have pondered the ways in which agent sentiment can play out in the financial markets to move asset price away from fundamental value. Decades later, DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann [2] formalize the role of sentiment in a financial market which is populated by two categories of investors: informed traders who rationally anticipate asset value, and uninformed noise traders who experience waves of optimistic or pessimistic sentiment that is not fully justified by the facts about fundamentals at hand. They demonstrate how, aggregate demand shifts on the part of noise traders (as a result of their acting in concert) triggered by changes in sentiment can induce a systematic risk that is priced in equilibrium. In their model, noise trader sentiment is stochastic and the deviations in price from fundamental value created by changes in sentiment are unpredictable. As a result, now informed investors have to take into account not only fundamental risk of investment but also the risk that investor sentiment becomes even more extreme and prices move further away from fundamental values over the holding period. This additional risk, known as the noise trader risk, renders arbitrage activity risky and prevents risk-averse informed traders from taking fully offsetting positions to correct mispricing induced by noise trading. Consequently, noise trader risk represents an additional source of systematic risk that is priced in the market.So far a number of studies, mostly done in the context of US markets using a variety of sentiment proxies, have largely lent support to the implication of the DSSW model for asset pricin...