Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change

Nenzén, Hedvig K.; Araújo, Miguel B.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.07.011

Cited by 217 publications

(199 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…We divided the 25% of sampled grid cells into calibration (75%) and validation (25%), and the final distribution of each method was based on 10 replicates of crossvalidation. The threshold applied to convert the occurrence probabilities into binary classification was the prevalence in each data calibration (Nenzén and Araújo 2011). The ensemble forecasting was generated through an average of model predictions weighted by the True Skill Statistics (TSS; Allouche et al 2006) calculated according to internal validation.…”

Section: Ecological Niche Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory

Zanin

Tessarolo

Machado

et al. 2017

An. Acad. Bras. Ciênc.

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In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

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Section: Ecological Niche Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory

Zanin

Tessarolo

Machado

et al. 2017

An. Acad. Bras. Ciênc.

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“…Our approach of modelling abundance has several benefits compared to presence-absence modelling; for example, the interpretation of projections is not dependent upon the probability threshold set for occurrence, a significant source of variability for presence-absence modelling 37 and the outputs of abundances are of direct relevance for the European policy context. However, modelling abundance may exacerbate uncertainty for other reasons.…”

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confidence: 99%

Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

et al. 2013

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“…This is a common procedure, although with limitations (Lobo et al 2008); therefore, values of test omission rates for selected threshold were also considered to judge model. There are several methods for selecting thresholds, and their possible impacts on the predicted distributions have been explored and discussed in the literature (Liu et al 2005;Nenzén and Araújo 2011). However, there is currently no consensus on the most suitable and stable method for applying thresholds to species range projections (Nenzén and Araújo 2011).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are several methods for selecting thresholds, and their possible impacts on the predicted distributions have been explored and discussed in the literature (Liu et al 2005;Nenzén and Araújo 2011). However, there is currently no consensus on the most suitable and stable method for applying thresholds to species range projections (Nenzén and Araújo 2011). The logistic output in MaxEnt estimates the probability of presence, assuming that the sampling design is such that typical presence localities have a presence probability of ca.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

Wróblewska

Mirski

2017

Reg Environ Change

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Climate change is projected to influence the genetic resources of plant species. Recent research has examined genetic diversity patterns under current climate conditions, with little attention to the future genetic consequences for species. In this study, we combined ecological niche modeling and population genetic approaches to project future changes in genetic diversity using plastid and nuclear DNA and reconstructed distribution patterns of three circumboreal plants (Chamaedaphne calyculata, Linnaea borealis ssp. borealis, and Pedicularis sceptrum-carolinum ssp. sceptrumcarolinum) in the last glacial maximum. We found that circumboreal plants could potentially lose their geographic ranges in the future (2070; 35-52% in RCP 4.5 (representative concentration pathways), 37-53% in RCP 6.0, and 56-69% in RCP 8.5), only slightly compensated by a predicted range gain of 18-33% (across the three RCPs). It is expected that future genetic diversity level could remain similar or lower than the present level. On the other hand, the homogeneity of the genetic background-a lack of admixture and domination of one gene pool in most populations of C. calyculata and L. borealis ssp. borealis-was predicted to become more pronounced in the future. Combining the paleoecological niche modeling and genetic data revealed, more precisely, the climate refugia for circumboreal plants in the Alps, central Asia, Beringia, and southern North America and the macrorefugia more restricted to the northern part of Eurasia and North America, reaching the arctic zone.

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Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change

Cited by 217 publications

References 62 publications

Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory

Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory

Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

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