Objective: To understand the neuropsychological basis of dementia risk among persons in the spectrum including cognitive normality and mild cognitive impairment.
Methods:We quantitated risk of progression to dementia in elderly persons without dementia from 2 population-based studies, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) and Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA), aged 70 to 89 years at enrollment. Baseline cognitive status was defined by performance in 4 domains derived from batteries of neuropsychological tests (that were similar but not identical for FHS and MCSA) at cut scores corresponding to SDs of #20.5, 21, 21.5, and 22 from normative means. Participants were characterized as having no cognitive impairment (reference group), or single or multiple amnestic or nonamnestic profiles at each cut score. Incident dementia over the following 6 years was determined by consensus committee at each study separately.Results: The pattern of hazard ratios for incident dementia, rates of incident dementia and positive predictive values across cognitive test cut scores, and number of affected domains was similar although not identical across the FHS and MCSA. Dementia risks were higher for amnestic profiles than for nonamnestic profiles, and for multidomain compared with single-domain profiles.Conclusions: Cognitive domain subtypes, defined by neuropsychologically derived cut scores and number of low-performing domains, differ substantially in prognosis in a conceptually logical manner that was consistent between FHS and MCSA. Neuropsychological characterization of elderly persons without dementia provides valuable information about prognosis. The heterogeneity of risk of dementia cannot be captured concisely with one test or a single definition or cutpoint. The wide variation in cognitive function in aging, both in levels of performance and rates of change over time, forces clinicians and lay people to focus on categorical descriptions. Labels such as cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and dementia are applied as if they were discrete entities, but it is accepted that these terms represent demarcations of convenience along the continuum of cognition. MCI occupies a central location in the spectrum of cognitive aging, and its use as a diagnostic term has been criticized because of the heterogeneity of its prognosis. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18] There are many reasons for the wide range of dementia risk in persons designated as MCI, but perhaps the most important one is that cognitive functioning that falls between the designations of "typical cognitive aging" and "definitely demented" is remarkably diverse. Changes in memory, attention, executive, language, and visuospatial domains, as well as the magnitude of those changes, have distinct implications for prognosis. The existing studies suggested to us that the diversity of affected domains and cutpoints, rather than a weakness, had