Classification of Regions of Ukraine by The Level of Social Tension

Abstract

The analysis of indicators that reflect changes in the social, economic and political spheres in recent years has shown their significant deterioration and the possibility of growing social tensions in the regions of Ukraine. The purpose of the study is to classify the regions of Ukraine according to the level of formation of social tensions and to determine anticipative measures aimed at preventing the creation of crisis situations. The article proposes a methodical approach to the classification of regions using the methods of cluster, discriminant analysis and analysis of variance according to the level of social tension, which includes two main stages: substantiation of the system of socio-economic indicators characterizing the level of social tension; selection and substantiation of models of classification of the regions. Within the first stage of the methodical approach the system of indicators which reflect changes in social, economic and political spheres of Ukraine in modern transformational conditions was constructed. Within the framework of the second stage of the methodical approach on the basis of cluster analysis the classification of regions according to the level of formation of social tension was carried out. The classes of regions were selected: with a low level of formation of social tension; with an intensified level of formation of social tension; with a high level of formation of social tension. The results of the study showed that the number of regions in the class with a high level of social tension is constantly growing and, unfortunately, the number of regions with high socio-economic development is decreasing. The classification of regions made it possible to determine the list of preventive measures that can reduce the losses of the state associated with the containment of possible crises in the social sphere. However, the article also states that such a list of activities should take into account the specifics of the region that is part of each class

Predictive modelling and analysis of the level of socio-economic tension in regional systems for sustainable territories renovation

“…In accordance with the identified phases, when developing a monitoring system, it is necessary to use a system of indicators that causes an increase in SET (latent phase), and a system of indicators that is a consequence of a critical level of SET (explicit phase, phase of exacerbation and conflict). This paper discusses the construction of a system for monitoring and managing SET in the context of anticipative management aimed at preventing the formation of crisis situations in regional systems due to the growth of SET, which is possible with early recognition and timely diagnosis of the latent stage of strengthening SET [7][8].…”

“…The problem of developing models for assessing, analyzing and predicting the mechanism for monitoring the level of SET is considered in the works of such scientists as Voronina N., Kizim N., Klebanova T., Panasenko O., Rudachenko O., Uzunov S., Khadzhalova M. and others [7][8][9][10][11][12]. So, in [7-8, 10, 12], to assess the level of SET, it is proposed to use complex indicators based on a system of local indicators that characterize the socio-economic situation of the region, such as GRP, industrial output index, consumer price index, etc., the scales of integrated indicators are proposed, allowing to give a qualitative interpretation of the quantitative indicators of SET, the threshold values of the indicators, indicating the critical level of SET, are highlighted.…”