Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models

Tourpali, Kleareti; Bais, A. F.; Kazantzidis, Andreas; Zerefos, C. S.; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Austin, J.; Brühl, Christoph; Butchart, Neal; Chipperfield, Martyn; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Eyring, Veronika; Giorgetta, Marco; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Mancini, E.; Marsh, D. R.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Pitari, Giovanni; Plummer, David A.; Rozanov, Eugene; Shibata, Kiyotaka; Tian, Wenshou

doi:10.5194/acp-9-1165-2009

Cited by 44 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Coupled Climate Chemistry models like MOCAGE (but in a different configuration than the one used here, as described in Teyssèdre et al, 2007) provide predictions of surface UV radiation influencing factors allowing the simulation of surface UV levels from the past to present, but also in the coming decades (WMO, 2007;Eyring et al, 2007;Tourpali et al, 2009). Under cloud free conditions, surface erythemal irradiance has been calculated to decrease globally as a result of the projected stratospheric ozone recovery at rates that are larger in the first half of the 21st century and smaller towards its end.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since effects from changes in cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, have not been considered, over some areas the actual changes in future UV radiation may be different depending on the evolution of these parameters. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007), multimodel simulations based on the SRESA1B scenario suggest that cloud cover will decrease by the end of the 21st century in most of the low and middle latitudes of both hemispheres by up to 4 % (Meehl et al, 2007;Tourpali et al, 2009). This would result in an increase in surface UV radiation in these regions (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Validity of satellite measurements used for the monitoring of UV radiation risk on health

et al. 2011

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Abstract. In order to test the validity of ultraviolet index (UVI) satellite products and UVI model simulations for general public information, intercomparison involving three satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOME-2), the Chemistry and Transport Model, Modélisation de la Chimie Atmosphérique Grande Echelle (MOCAGE), and ground-based instruments was performed in 2008 and 2009. The intercomparison highlighted a systematic high bias of ∼1 UVI in the OMI clear-sky products compared to the SCIAMACHY and TUV model clear-sky products. The OMI and GOME-2 all-sky products are close to the groundbased observations with a low 6 % positive bias, comparable to the results found during the satellite validation campaigns. This result shows that OMI and GOME-2 all-sky products are well appropriate to evaluate the UV-risk on health. The study has pointed out the difficulty to take into account either in the retrieval algorithms or in the models, the large spatial and temporal cloud modification effect on UV radiation. This factor is crucial to provide good quality UV information. OMI and GOME-2 show a realistic UV variability as a function of the cloud cover. Nevertheless these satellite products do not sufficiently take into account the radiation reCorrespondence to: F. Jégou (fabrice.jegou@orleans.cnrs.fr) flected by clouds. MOCAGE numerical forecasts show good results during periods with low cloud covers, but are actually not adequate for overcast conditions; this is why Météo-France currently uses human-expertised cloudiness (rather than direct outputs from Numerical Prediction Models) together with MOCAGE clear-sky UV indices for its operational forecasts. From now on, the UV monitoring could be done using free satellite products (OMI, GOME-2) and operational forecast for general public by using modelling, as long as cloud forecasts and the parametrisation of the impact of cloudiness on UV radiation are adequate.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Validity of satellite measurements used for the monitoring of UV radiation risk on health

et al. 2011

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“…Changes in these factors may alter the levels of the surface UV irradiance (Bais et al, , 2011Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009;Tourpali et al, 2009;Watanabe et al, 2011) with important impacts on human health and the balance of the ecosystems (UNEP, 2010;Williamson et al, 2014). However, the uncertainties in the spatial and temporal variability, the magnitude and the direction of the projected changes of surface UV irradiance are still high .…”

Section: Fountoulakis Et Al: Short-and Long-term Variability Of Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Short- and long-term variability of spectral solar UV irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece: effects of changes in aerosols, total ozone and clouds

et al. 2016

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Abstract. In this study, we discuss the short-and the longterm variability of spectral UV irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece, using a long, quality-controlled data set from two Brewer spectrophotometers. Long-term changes in spectral UV irradiance at 307.5, 324 and 350 nm for the period 1994-2014 are presented for different solar zenith angles and discussed in association with changes in total ozone column (TOC), aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloudiness observed in the same period. Positive changes in annual mean anomalies of UV irradiance, ranging from 2 to 6 % per decade, have been detected both for clear-and all-sky conditions. The changes are generally greater for larger solar zenith angles and for shorter wavelengths. For clear-skies, these changes are, in most cases, statistically significant at the 95 % confidence limit. Decreases in the aerosol load and weakening of the attenuation by clouds lead to increases in UV irradiance in the summer, of 7-9 % per decade for 64 • solar zenith angle. The increasing TOC in winter counteracts the effect of decreasing AOD for this particular season, leading to small, statistically insignificant, negative long-term changes in irradiance at 307.5 nm. Annual mean UV irradiance levels are increasing from 1994 to 2006 and remain relatively stable thereafter, possibly due to the combined changes in the amount and optical properties of aerosols. However, no statistically significant corresponding turning point has been detected in the long-term changes of AOD. The absence of signatures of changes in AOD in the short-term variability of irradiance in the UV-A may have been caused by changes in the single scattering albedo of aerosols, which may counteract the effects of changes in AOD on irradiance. The anticorrelation between the year-to-year variability of the irradiance at 307.5 nm and TOC is clear and becomes clearer as the AOD decreases.

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“…Other factors, such as gaseous pollutants in the troposphere and temperature in the stratosphere, may also play a role (WMO, 2007). Without accounting for the effects of changes in these parameters, Tourpali et al (2009) estimated the changes in noontime erythemal irradiance based on simulations of total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature from 11 ChemistryClimate Models (CCMs) incorporating stratospheric ozone recovery (Eyring et al, 2007). They estimated decreases in erythemal irradiance of 5-15 % over mid-latitudes between 2000 and 2100, and twice as much at southern high latitudes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

et al. 2011

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Abstract. Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations -particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery -andCorrespondence to: A. F. Bais (abais@auth.gr) the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average ∼12 % lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, ∼3 % lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (∼1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (∼16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2-3 % of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (∼1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. At northern high latitudes (60 • -90 • ), the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will reduce the yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by ∼5 % with respect to the 1960s.

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Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models

Cited by 44 publications

References 32 publications

Validity of satellite measurements used for the monitoring of UV radiation risk on health

Validity of satellite measurements used for the monitoring of UV radiation risk on health

Short- and long-term variability of spectral solar UV irradiance at Thessaloniki, Greece: effects of changes in aerosols, total ozone and clouds

Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

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