Abstract. This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical ( -2014, and future (2015-2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunderminimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models.For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical onePublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m −2 . The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m −2 . In the 200-400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %).We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using timeslice experiments of two chemistry-climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day −1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day −1 at the stratopause), temperatures (∼ 1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset.CMIP6 models wi...
The lack of long and reliable time series of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accurate quantification of solar contributions to recent climate change difficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models provided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability, recent measurements by the SORCE (SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment) satellite suggest a significantly stronger variability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changes in the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phase with the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations have shown that this might have significant implications on the Earth's atmosphere. Motivated by these results, we summarize here our current knowledge of SSI variability and its impact on Earth's climate.
We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measurements and provide thorough comparison of models available to date. SSI changes influence the Earth's atmosphere, both directly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating and therefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the stratosphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks. We investigate these direct and indirect effects using several state-of-the art CCM simulations forced with measured and modelled SSI changes. A unique asset of this study is the use of a common comprehensive approach for an issue that is usually addressed separately by different communities.
We show that the SORCE measurements are difficult to reconcile with earlier observations and with SSI models. Of the five SSI models discussed here, specifically NRLSSI (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance), SATIRE-S (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions for the Satellite era), COSI (COde for Solar Irradiance), SRPM (Solar Radiation Physical Modelling), and OAR (Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma), only one shows a behaviour of the UV and visible irradiance qualitatively resembling that of the recent SORCE measurements. However, the integral of the SSI computed with this model over the entire spectral range does not reproduce the measured cyclical changes of the total solar irradiance, which is an essential requisite for realistic evaluations of solar effects on the Earth's climate in CCMs.
We show that within the range provided by the recent SSI observations and semi-empirical models discussed here, the NRLSSI model and SORCE observations represent the lower and upper limits in the magnitude of the SSI solar cycle variation.
The results of the CCM simulations, forced with the SSI solar cycle variations estimated from the NRLSSI model and from SORCE measurements, show that the direct solar response in the stratosphere is larger for the SORCE than for the NRLSSI data. Correspondingly, larger UV forcing also leads to a larger surface response.
Finally, we discuss the reliability of the available data and we propose additional coordinated work, first to build composite SSI data sets out of scattered observations and to r...
We assess the importance of factors that determine the intensity of UV radiation at the Earth's surface. Among these, atmospheric ozone, which absorbs UV radiation, is of considerable importance, but other constituents of the atmosphere, as well as certain consequences of climate change, can also be major influences. Further, we assess the variations of UV radiation observed in the past and present, and provide projections for the future. Of particular interest are methods to measure or estimate UV radiation at the Earth's surface. These are needed for scientific understanding and, when they are sufficiently sensitive, they can serve as monitors of the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. Also assessed are several aspects of UV radiation related to biological effects and health. The implications for ozone and UV radiation from two types of geoengineering methods that have been proposed to combat climate change are also discussed. In addition to ozone effects, the UV changes in the last two decades, derived from measurements, have been influenced by changes in aerosols, clouds, surface reflectivity, and, possibly, by solar activity. The positive trends of UV radiation observed after the mid-1990s over northern mid-latitudes are mainly due to decreases in clouds and aerosols. Despite some indications from measurements at a few stations, no statistically significant decreases in UV-B radiation attributable to the beginning of the ozone recovery have yet been detected. Projections for erythemal irradiance (UVery) suggest the following changes by the end of the 21(st) century (2090-2100) relative to the present time (2010-2020): (1) Ozone recovery (due to decreasing ozone-depleting substances and increasing greenhouse gases) would cause decreases in UVery, which will be highest (up to 40%) over Antarctica. Decreases would be small (less than 10%) outside the southern Polar Regions. A possible decline of solar activity during the 21(st) century might affect UV-B radiation at the surface indirectly through changes induced in stratospheric ozone. (2) The projected changes in cloud cover would lead to relatively small effects (less than 3%), except at northern high latitudes where increases in cloud cover could lead to decreases in UVery by up to 7%. (3) Reductions in reflectivity due to the melting of sea-ice in the Arctic would lead to decreases of UVery by up to 10%, while at the margins of the Antarctic the decreases would be smaller (2-3%). The melting of the sea-ice would expose the ocean surface formerly covered by ice to UV-B radiation up to 10 times stronger than before. (4) The expected improvement of air-quality and reductions of aerosols over the most populated areas of the northern hemisphere may result in 10-20% increases in UVery, except over China where even larger increases are projected. The projected aerosol effect for the southern hemisphere is generally very small. Aerosols are possibly the most important factor for future UV levels over heavily populated areas, but their project...
[1] The 11-year solar cycles in ozone and temperature are examined using new simulations of coupled chemistry climate models. The results show a secondary maximum in stratospheric tropical ozone, in agreement with satellite observations and in contrast with most previously published simulations. The mean model response varies by up to about 2.5% in ozone and 0.8 K in temperature during a typical solar cycle, at the lower end of the observed ranges of peak responses. Neither the upper atmospheric effects of energetic particles nor the presence of the quasi biennial oscillation is necessary to simulate the lower stratospheric response in the observed low latitude ozone concentration. Comparisons are also made between model simulations and observed total column ozone. As in previous studies, the model simulations agree well with observations. For those models which cover the full temporal range 1960-2005, the ozone solar signal below 50 hPa changes substantially from the first two solar cycles to the last two solar cycles. Further investigation suggests that this difference is due to an aliasing between the sea surface temperatures and the solar cycle during the first part of the period. The relationship between these results and the overall structure in the tropical solar ozone response is discussed. Further understanding of solar processes requires improvement in the observations of the vertically varying and column integrated ozone.
Spectral solar UV radiation measurements performed at Thessaloniki, Greece (40øN), are presented, and the influence of various atmospheric constituents such as total ozone, cloud cover, and columnar SO2 on these measurements is examined. By comparing UV radiation measurements at days with different total ozone amounts the magnification factor was calculated. Its values range from I to 20, depending on the wavelength and the total ozone. A relationship between the UV radiation and the cloud cover was established, being representative only for measurements at 50 ø solar zenith angle. In addition, the influence of columnar SO2 variations on UV irradiances was also studied. Finally, an attempt was made to compare the relative influence of these parameters on UV radiation, which proved that total ozone is the major factor controlling the solar UVB radiation received at the ground. ß _.* •.' .4, ß ,. ß ß ß ß ß ß ß ee ß eß ß ß ß ß ß ß ß ß . ß (b) ß ß ß ß ß
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.