Climate and density-dependent drivers of recruitment in plains bison

Koons, David N.; Terletzky, Pat; Adler, Peter B.; Wolfe, Michael L.; Ranglack, Dustin H.; Howe, Frank P.; Hersey, Kent R.; Paskett, W.; Toit, Du

doi:10.1644/11-mamm-a-281.1

Cited by 23 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(36 reference statements)

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“…Average annual precipitation changed dramatically between the lower elevation slopes and desert areas (e.g., 15 cm) and the upper elevation, forested slopes (e.g., 50 cm; Van Vuren and Bray ). Precipitation was highly variable over time and influenced reproductive success of bison (Koons et al ). Vegetation also changed as elevation increased.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating ungulate abundance while accounting for multiple sources of observation error

Terletzky

Koons

2016

Wildl. Soc. Bull.

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Whether a species is rare or overabundant, accurate estimates of population abundance are essential for the development and assessment of conservation plans and management goals. Aerial surveys are commonly used to estimate population abundance and a variety of methods have been used to account for recognized biases associated with imperfect detection. Rarely addressed, however, is the possibility of recording duplicate observations and the influence of duplicate observations on estimates of abundance. Using data provided by Global Positioning System (GPS)‐collared bison (Bison bison) and helicopter survey paths conducted during 2011–2013 in the Henry Mountains, Utah, USA, we determined whether GPS‐collared bison were observed, missed, or observed multiple times. Using these data, covariates hypothesized to influence observation errors, and generalized linear models, we found the probability of detecting a GPS‐collared bison (study‐wide mean of 95%) was consistently greater for individuals in larger groups and less rugged terrain. We also found that the probability of recording a duplicate observation (study‐wide mean of 4.4%) increased with time since the prior survey observation. By incorporating both types of observation error into a modified Horvitz–Thompson estimator, more accurate estimates of bison abundance can be attained, particularly in years when animals segregate into small groups, utilize terrain that makes them difficult to see, or have ample time to move into areas not yet surveyed and be counted again. Our approach of accounting for multiple sources of observation error can easily be applied to aerial surveys for other species in other systems, and has the potential to improve the rigor of wildlife abundance estimation from aerial surveys. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

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Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating ungulate abundance while accounting for multiple sources of observation error

Terletzky

Koons

2016

Wildl. Soc. Bull.

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“…Through input from multiple stakeholder groups, the currently agreed upon objective is to use hunting and translocations to maintain 325 adults in the population after the annual hunting season (UDWR 2007). Common to most conservation and management issues, a better understanding of demographic mechanisms is nevertheless needed to consistently meet this objective (see Koons et al 2012).…”

Section: Study Area and Data Collectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although adult survival in bison and other large ungulates is often high and robust to density dependence as well as environmental variability (Eberhardt 2002, Gaillard and Yoccoz 2003, Fuller et al 2007b, Bonenfant et al 2009), offspring recruitment is often highly responsive to these processes (Gaillard et al 1998, Bonenfant et al 2009, Koons et al 2012. Moreover, the effects of climate on primary productivity and the phenological timing of plant greening leading up to parturition and lactation may play a particularly important role in shaping the early-life demography of ungulates (Pettorelli et al 2005a(Pettorelli et al , b, c, 2007.…”

Section: Hypothesis Development and Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Controlled hunting and translocation (collectively, extraction) are used to manage bison numbers in and between areas within metapopulation management programs. Managers must also be mindful of densitydependent competition for available forage because of feedback effects on bison dispersal and demography, as well as the potential to create conflict with the cattle industry (Fuller et al 2007a, b, Plumb et al 2009, Koons et al 2012. Understanding the influences of perturbations to extraction rates, climate variables, and strength of density dependence on population dynamics will thus be especially critical for managing bison amid the significant pressures imposed by land use, water use, and climate change (Lemly et al 2000, Pringle 2000, Northrup and Wittemyer 2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

Koons

Colchero

Hersey

et al. 2015

Ecological Applications

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Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

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“…; Koons et al. ). Either lower recruitment, higher emigration, increased mortality or some combination of all three slows the rate of increase (Ricker ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Vegetation changes associated with a population irruption by Roosevelt elk

Starns

Weckerly

Ricca

et al. 2014

Ecology and Evolution

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Interactions between large herbivores and their food supply are central to the study of population dynamics. We assessed temporal and spatial patterns in meadow plant biomass over a 23-year period for meadow complexes that were spatially linked to three distinct populations of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) in northwestern California. Our objectives were to determine whether the plant community exhibited a tolerant or resistant response when elk population growth became irruptive. Plant biomass for the three meadow complexes inhabited by the elk populations was measured using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which was derived from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery. Elk populations exhibited different patterns of growth through the time series, whereby one population underwent a complete four-stage irruptive growth pattern while the other two did not. Temporal changes in NDVI for the meadow complex used by the irruptive population suggested a decline in forage biomass during the end of the dry season and a temporal decline in spatial variation of NDVI at the peak of plant biomass in May. Conversely, no such patterns were detected in the meadow complexes inhabited by the nonirruptive populations. Our findings suggest that the meadow complex used by the irruptive elk population may have undergone changes in plant community composition favoring plants that were resistant to elk grazing.

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Climate and density-dependent drivers of recruitment in plains bison

Cited by 23 publications

References 49 publications

Estimating ungulate abundance while accounting for multiple sources of observation error

Estimating ungulate abundance while accounting for multiple sources of observation error

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics

Vegetation changes associated with a population irruption by Roosevelt elk

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