Climate anomalies, land degradation, and rural out-migration in Uganda

Abstract

Globally, rural livelihoods are increasingly challenged by the dual threats of land degradation and climate change. These issues are of particular concern in sub-Saharan Africa, where land degradation is believed to be severe and where climate change will bring higher temperatures and shifts in rainfall. To date, however, we know little about the relative effects of these various potential environmental stressors on migration. To examine these processes, we link longitudinal data from 850 Ugandan households with environmental data on soils, forests, and climate, and then analyze these data using approaches that account for potential spatial and temporal confounders. Our findings reveal that climate anomalies, rather than land degradation, are the primary contributor to environmental migration in Uganda, with heat stress of particular importance. Short hot spells increase temporary migration, an element of a diversified household livelihood strategy, while long-term heat stress induces permanent migration through an agricultural livelihoods pathway.

Local Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses from Two Mountain Regions in Tanzania

“…This may be attributed to: the fact that we studied communities whose predominant livelihood activity is agriculture, fear of reporting illegal actions, changes in law reinforcement in the national parks, growing electrification, the fact that national park authorities in 2019 launched a household tree planting initiative to overcome firewood availability [80], or because the agroforestry farming system in Kilimanjaro has lowered firewood demand among villagers. In contrast to other studies across sub-Saharan Africa [81][82][83], we did not find evidence of migration due to climate change. Nevertheless, people are likely to migrate for other reasons such as education, lifestyle aspirations, and seasonal or permanent employment.…”

Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa

“…Previous demographic and econometric studies of climate-induced migration in Africa have largely consisted of sub-national or single-country case studies, drawing primarily on longitudinal or retrospective household survey data. Initiated by Henry, Schoumaker, and Beauchemin (2004) with a study from Burkina Faso, this literature has since grown to include studies from Nigeria (Dillon, Mueller and Sheu, 2011), Ethiopia (Gray and Mueller, 2012), Uganda (Call and Gray, 2020), Tanzania (Hirvonen, 2016), Zambia (Nawrotzki and DeWaard, 2018;Mueller et al, 2020a), and South Africa (Mastrorillo et al, 2016), among other case studies. Using the shared methodological approach described above, these studies have revealed a mix of trapping and displacement processes, sometimes in the same study population.…”

“…For example, Henry, Schoumaker, and Beauchemin (2004) found that rainfall deficits in Burkina Faso increased long-term migration to rural areas but decreased shortterm moves to distant destinations, while Gray and Mueller (2012) revealed that drought in Ethiopia increased men's labor migration but reduced women's marriage migration. Globally, studies investigating the effects of temperature on migration have often found displacement effects (Kaczan and Orgill-Meyer 2020), but in the African context displacement and trapping effects appear to be equally common (Dillon, Mueller and Sheu, 2011;Hirvonen, 2016;Mastrorillo et al, 2016;Mueller et al, 2020b;Call and Gray, 2020). These studies have dramatically expanded our understanding of climate-induced migration in Africa, but a major limitation is that no two studies have used the same measurement and analysis approaches, severely limiting our ability to compare across national contexts.…”

Is migration an effective adaptation to climate-related agricultural distress in sub-Saharan Africa?

“…A few examples to illustrate this heterogeneity; In Burkina Faso, Henry et al (2004) showed that land degradation and ongoing environmental change exerted a greater influence on migration decisions than climate-related events. Conversely, in Uganda, Call and Gray (2020) reported that the primary contributor to environmental migration were climate anomalies, in particular heat stress, rather than land degradation. In this case, temporary migration increased due to short hot spells and constituted a diversified livelihood strategy.…”

“…In this case, temporary migration increased due to short hot spells and constituted a diversified livelihood strategy. Longer-term heat stress-induced permanent migration (Call & Gray, 2020).…”