Climate Aridity/humidity Characteristics in Seoul According to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Based on RCP 4.5 and 8.5

Abstract

In this study, monthly and annual aridity indices which are the ratios of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration in Seoul climate measurement station were analyzed for past 50 years (1961～2010), and the ratio of aridity index simulated by climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for each future period (2011～2040, 2041～2070, 2071～2100) to aridity index for the past period (1971～2000) was analyzed. Furthermore, 5 different potential evapotranspiration equations (FAO P-M, Penman, Makkink, PriestleyTaylor, Hargreaves) were applied to analyze the effect of potential evapotranspiration equation on estimating aridity index and aridity index variation ratio (%). The study results indicate that the monthly precipitation, average temperature and potential evapotranspiration were increased in each future period as compared to past period for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Furthermore, winter period showed more significant increase of potential evapotranspiration than summer period, but aridity index showed different patterns as compared with potential evapotranspiration reflecting the influence of precipitation. Therefore, it is necessary to make preparation for the increment of winter evapotranspiration in terms of water resources management. The monthly and annual aridity indices based on future climate change scenarios were greatly different according to potential evapotranspiration equations; however, monthly and annual patterns of aridity index variation ratio (%) in the future period as compared to past period were very similar regardless of applied potential evapotranspiration equation.

Analysis of Drought Intensity and Trends Using the Modified SPEI in South Korea from 1981 to 2010

“…The spatial and temporal drought distribution was analyzed by SPI [21][22][23][24][25]. In addition, the impact of climate change on future drought has been evaluated in several studies in Korea [26][27][28]. However, most research has focused on meteorological drought, but the main problem of drought occurs in agricultural area.…”

Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis of Future Extreme Rainfall using CMIP5 GCMs over the Korean Peninsula

“…수문 분야에서도 GCMs에 따른 강수량 자료를 활용하여 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다 (Fowler et al, 2005;Oden and Prudhomme, 2002;Villarini et al, 2013;Rim and Kim, 2014;Yoon et al, 2015;Lee et al, 2016). 특히 Fowler et al (2005) (Yoon et al, 2015;Kim et al, 2014;Lee et al, 2010;Khaliq et al, 2006).…”

Assessing future urban flood hazard: A comprehensive approach to estimating the implications of future rainfall scenarios

“…Kwon et al (2007) found that the average temperature of the Korean Peninsula increased by 0.6 C and the total and summer precipitation increased by 11% and 18%, respectively, from 199611% and 18%, respectively, from to 200511% and 18%, respectively, from . Jang et al (2011 proposed a method to calculate probable precipitation in the near future based on hydrological frequency analysis of the residuals of the regression line of maximum annual precipitation, and Rim and Kim (2014) analyzed changes in drying and wetting characteristics in Seoul based on future periods according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Yoon and Cho (2015) evaluated the uncertainty evaluation and frequency analysis of annual maximum precipitation (AMP) in the near future on the Korean Peninsula using CMIP5 GCMs data.…”