Climate change and alpine-adapted insects: modelling environmental envelopes of a grasshopper radiation

Abstract

Mountains create steep environmental gradients that are sensitive barometers of climate change. We calibrated 10 statistical models to formulate ensemble ecological niche models for 12 predominantly alpine, flightless grasshopper species in Aotearoa New Zealand, using their current distributions and current conditions. Niche models were then projected for two future global climate scenarios: representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 (1.0°C rise) and RCP8.5 (3.7°C rise). Results were species specific, with two-thirds of our models suggesting a reduction in potential range for nine species by 2070, but surprisingly, for six species, we predict an increase in potential suitable habitat under mild (+1.0°C) or severe global warming (+3.7°C). However, when the limited dispersal ability of these flightless grasshoppers is taken into account, all 12 species studied are predicted to suffer extreme reductions in range, with a quarter likely to go extinct due to a 96–100% reduction in suitable habitat. Habitat loss is associated with habitat fragmentation that is likely to escalate stochastic vulnerability of remaining populations. Here, we present the predicted outcomes for an endemic radiation of alpine taxa as an exemplar of the challenges that alpine species, both in New Zealand and internationally, are subject to by anthropogenic climate change.

Effects of Climatic Change on Potential Distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera: Bombyliidae) in the Middle East Using Maxent Modelling

“…Biodiversity patterns and changes in the Earth’s climate are intimately intertwined [ 54 ]. In response to long-term climate change, the geographic distributions of species are shrinking, expanding, shifting or fragmenting [ 51 ].…”

“…In response to long-term climate change, the geographic distributions of species are shrinking, expanding, shifting or fragmenting [ 51 ]. Moreover, it is anticipated to result in species experiencing phenological inconsistency and facing new competition and community structures [ 54 ]. With ectotherms in particular, insects are most vulnerable as their biochemical and physiological processes are firmly controlled by ambient temperature [ 55 , 56 ].…”

“…The outcomes of climate change and species adaptation over hundreds of thousands of years are not comparable to the changes taking place within a century in terms of biodiversity [ 54 ]. The adaptation of the S. ocyale species may not be fast enough to keep pace with the rate of habitat loss and degradation predicted during this study by the year 2085.…”

Time‐calibrated phylogeny and ecological niche models indicate Pliocene aridification drove intraspecific diversification of brushtail possums in Australia

“…While population size, range, and gene flow can be influenced by the emergence of adaptive traits (Reznick & Ghalambor, 2001 ; Szücs et al, 2017 ), climate and other abiotic factors have a strong influence on population structure (Davis & Shaw, 2001 ; Hewitt, 2004 ) and thus speciation (Endler, 1977 ). As a result, patterns of biodiversity and population structure are intrinsically linked to changes in Earth's climate (Byrne, 2008 ; Koot et al, 2022 ; Nogués‐Bravo et al, 2018 ). Here, we tested the origin of intraspecific division in the Australian brushtail possum that experiences very different habitats across its spatial range.…”

A tale of two crickets: global climate and local competition shape the distribution of European Oecanthus species (Orthoptera, Gryllidae)

“…Yet, very few studies have applied SDMs to the study of arthropod responses to climate change, and even fewer have integrated biotic interactions within their framework (Hortal et al 2010, Warren et al 2010, Taucare-Ríos et al 2016, Mammola et al 2021. Even within Arthropods, strong taxonomical biases in research efforts occur, with most studies being conducted on charismatic or aesthetically appreciated taxa such as Lepidoptera and large Arachnids, while other groups are poorly covered, (e.g., ground beetles -Carabidae -and Orthoptera; Høye 2020, Mammola et al 2021, Koot et al 2022. Nonetheless, many species within such neglected taxonomic groups are key elements of the ecosystems they are a part of, or are considered as priority species for conservation (Samways and Lockwood 1998), so that understanding their responses to climate change is pivotal to foster ecosystem and species conservation in the future (Penone et al 2013, Bidau 2014.…”