Effects of Climatic Change on Potential Distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera: Bombyliidae) in the Middle East Using Maxent Modelling

Abstract

Spogostylum ocyale (Wiedemann 1828) is a large robust species of bee fly (family Bombyliidae), known to be a larval ectoparasitoid as well as an important flower pollinator as an adult. This species has become extremely rare or has disappeared from many of its historic habitats due to substantial changes in floral and faunal compositions in recent years. Climate change and urbanisation, together with other anthropogenic activities, may be to blame for these changes. Distribution modelling based on environmental variables together with known occurrences is a powerful tool in analytical biology, with applications in ecology, evolution, conservation management, epidemiology and other fields. Based on climatological and topographic data, the current and future distributions of the parasitoid in the Middle East region was predicted using the maximum entropy model (Maxent). The model performance was satisfactory (AUC mean = 0.834; TSS mean = 0.606) and revealed a good potential distribution for S. ocyale featured by the selected factors. A set of seven predictors was chosen from 19 bioclimatic variables and one topographic variable. The results show that the distribution of S. ocyale is mainly affected by the maximum temperature of the warmest period (Bio5) and temperature annual range (Bio7). According to the habitat suitability map, coastal regions with warm summers and cold winters had high to medium suitability. However, future scenarios predict a progressive decline in the extent of suitable habitats with global climate warming. These findings lead to robust conservation management measures in current or future conservation planning.

Fungus under a Changing Climate: Modeling the Current and Future Global Distribution of Fusarium oxysporum Using Geographical Information System Data

“…The jackknife test was used to discover bioclimatic variables important in assessing the potential spread of target species. In addition, the predicted model accuracy was estimated using the true skill statistic (TSS) [ 37 ]. The TSS value can vary from −1 to 1; positive values close to 1 indicate a strong association between the predictive model and the distribution, and negative values indicate a weak association [ 30 ].…”

Climate Change and Insects

“…The intention is to include various species from diverse orders in order to demonstrate the impact of climate change on a wide diversity of insects. Therefore, this Special Issue deals with insect species from Coleoptera [ 6 ], Diptera [ 7 ], Hymenoptera [ 8 , 9 ], Lepidoptera [ 10 , 11 , 12 ], Odonata [ 13 ], and Thysanoptera [ 14 ]. The regions covered by the articles range from local (e.g., southeastern Sweden) to larger geographical areas (e.g., the Middle East) and the global scale.…”

“…It must be underlined that some articles discuss the economic impacts of CC on insect distribution, especially under plant protection aspects [ 14 ] and—quite specifically—in apiculture [ 10 ]. Aspects of species conservation are also addressed in at least three articles [ 6 , 7 , 13 ], as well as the energetic costs for species development cycles [ 8 ].…”

“…Gao et al [ 9 ] discussed a significantly extended range of this parasitoid for biological control of pests in forestry under CC effects. Another study in this Special Issue deals with a parasitoid: Soliman et al [ 7 ] investigated the future distribution of Spogostylum ocyale (Diptera), a larval ectoparasitoid of solitary bees and an effective pollinator itself. Based on climate projections, the authors showed a progressive decline in the extent of suitable habitats for this species under CC.…”

“…This study relies on a bundle of different meteorological variables, from annual mean temperature to precipitation in winter. The studies conducted by Soliman et al [ 7 ] and Gao et al [ 9 ] suggest that employing sophisticated and comprehensive models that incorporate multiple variables can result in improved outcomes in climate change impact studies.…”