Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps

Abstract

Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual status and potential future distribution of species restricted to particular microrefugia. For this study, all known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale, and a total of about 30,000 individuals. The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing in the majority of natural sites between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north-facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that a suitable area will significantly decrease (0–30% remaining). Under the most severe climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5), the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale, and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of patchy environments such as screes.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

“…The effects of climate change on the distribution of alpine species does not follow a fixed pattern, with impacts varying with the species’ life history and resource requirements. While several studies predict a dramatic decline in suitable habitat of alpine floral species with climate change ( Frishkoff et al, 2016 ; Fragnière et al, 2020 ), there are some species that also benefit from it and may cover larger area in the future ( Wang et al, 2019 ). For instance, the distribution of alpine herb specie Pedicularis kansuensis is expected to expand with climate change, under RCP scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, with a northward shift in distribution ( Wang et al, 2019 ).…”

“…For instance, the distribution of alpine herb specie Pedicularis kansuensis is expected to expand with climate change, under RCP scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, with a northward shift in distribution ( Wang et al, 2019 ). Meanwhile suitable area for the alpine plant Papaver occidentaleis would decrease considerably in the coming decades ( Fragnière et al, 2020 ). Climate warming is expected to promote seedling emergence phenology in other alpine herbs such as Primula alpicola , Pedicularis fletcheri , Meconopsis integrifolia and M. racemose ( Wang et al, 2018 ), while species such as Canacomyrica monticola and Fritillaria cirrhosa face threats of rapid habitat loss and extinction ( Davies et al, 2009 ; Kumar and Stohlgren, 2009 ; Barnosky et al, 2011 ; Wang J. J. et al, 2014 ).…”

Investigating pollination strategies in disturbed habitats: the case of the narrow-endemic toadflax Linaria tonzigii (Plantaginaceae) on mountain screes

“…As a result of the low vegetation cover, plants occurring on the screes are exposed to wind and other harsh weather conditions that are typical for high altitudes (Fisher 1952). Such extreme conditions impact not only plant life (Fragnière et al 2020) but also pollinator abundance and consequently also outcrossing rates (Mathews and Collins 2014).…”

Interspecific Variance of Suitable Habitat Changes for Four Alpine Rhododendron Species under Climate Change: Implications for Their Reintroductions

“…In general, the species would tend to distribute to high latitudes or elevations in the future to achieve a suitable habitat under continuous climate warming. Previous studies have demonstrated that numerous species change their geographic distribution range towards high latitudes and altitudes [1,16,17]. However, an increasing number of reports have found other types of range changes, such as east-west directions across longitudes or towards low elevations and tropical latitudes [42].…”

“…In particular, it requires only species presence data, can deal effectively with limited occurrence data and small sample sizes, and can use continuous and categorical environmental data as input variables. Numerous studies have predicted changes in animal and plant distributions in response to contemporary climate changes using the Maxent model [7,[16][17][18][19][20][21].…”