Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal‐Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

Ghanbari, Mahshid; Arabi, Mazdak; Kao, Shih‐Chieh; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Sweet, William

doi:10.1029/2021ef002055

Cited by 97 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…Lastly, we find that the statistical dependence between extreme rainfall and storm tide increases in the future for large swaths of the coastline, resulting in a higher probability to observe multi-hazard extremes during future storm events. This finding is significant since many previous studies of future compound flooding have neglected potential increases in hazard dependence 9,11,12,32 , which could underestimate compound flood risk.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…Recent projections of future storm climatology change suggest an increase in the probability of joint rainfall-surge events along much of the European coastline, mostly driven by an increase in rainfall hazard 10 . Along the US coastline, previous studies have considered changes in joint hazard resulting from changes in a subset of climate-induced variables, such as SLR 11 and changes in river flow 12 or changes in rainfall 9 . However, it is still unclear how future changes in TC climatology and SLR will alter the severity and spatial variation of joint rainfall-surge hazard across the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, what will be the relative contribution of storm climatology change and SLR to changes in the joint hazard, and how changes in TC characteristics are related to changes in rainfall hazard, storm surge hazard, and their dependence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard

Gori

Lin

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the largest drivers of extreme rainfall and surge, but current and future TC joint hazard has not been well quantified. We utilize a physics-based approach to simulate TC rainfall and storm tides and quantify their joint hazard under historical conditions and a future (SSP5 8.5) climate projection. We find drastic increases in the frequency of exceeding joint historical 100-yr hazard levels by 2100, with a 10–36 fold increase along the southern US coast and 30–195 fold increase in the northeast. The joint hazard increase is induced by sea-level rise and TC climatology change; the relative contribution of TC climatology change is higher than that of sea-level rise for 96% of the coast due to large increases in rainfall. Increasing storm intensity and decreasing translation speed are the main TC change factors that cause higher rainfall and storm tides and up to 25% increase in their dependence.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard

Gori

Lin

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…Interactions between climate and natural wildfires are known as the most important drivers of national forest ecosystem responses to future climate change. The increase in forest fires is associated with warmer temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation [1,3,7,[21][22][23][24], both of which are projected to continue under plausible future climate scenarios throughout the 21st century [8,[25][26][27][28]. An improved understanding of linkages between climate variables and natural wildfires is required to forecast future fire activity [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Climate Change on Natural-Caused Fire Activity in Western U.S. National Forests

2021

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Climate change, with warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, may increase natural-caused forest fire activity. Increasing natural-caused fires throughout western United States national forests could place people, property, and infrastructure at risk in the future. We used the fine K nearest neighbor (KNN) method coupled with the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) climate dataset to estimate changes in the rate of natural-caused fires in western United States national forests. We projected changes in the rate of minor and major forest fires from historical (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) conditions to characterize fire-prone national forests under a range of climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change can add to the occurrence of forest fires in western United States national forests, particularly in Rocky Mountain, Pacific Southwest, and Southwestern United States Forest Service regions. Although summer months are projected to have the highest rate of natural-caused forest fire activity in the future, the rate of natural-caused forest fires is likely to increase from August to December in the future compared to the historical conditions. Improved understanding of altered forest fire regimes can help forest managers to better understand the potential effects of climate change on future fire activity and implement actions to attenuate possible negative consequences.

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“…Innovative stormwater management techniques such as low impact development (LID), and green infrastructure (GI) can reduce these negative impacts in high density development areas (Seo et al, 2017b;Zhang et al, 2017). However, it should be highlighted that LID/GI practices may not be of much assistance in reducing peak runoff for extreme precipitation events (Ahiablame et al, 2013;Seo et al, 2017a;Zhu et al, 2019) that are likely to increase in the future (Ghanbari et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Urban Development Patterns on Municipal Water Shortage

et al. 2021

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While urban areas are being threatened by water shortage due to climate change and rapid population growth, effects of urban development patterns on future municipal water shortage are rarely investigated. We address this aspect of urbanization by assessing the impacts of sprawl vs. high-density patterns on future changes in the sub-annual water shortage intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships. The City of Fort Collins, Colorado, water supply system is chosen as a representative region that is rapidly developing over the last decades. The future water supply is estimated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) driven with a hot-dry climate model from the statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. Future water demand is projected using the Integrated Urban Water Model (IUWM) under both sprawl and high-density development patterns. The demonstration study reveals that urban areas under the sprawl development pattern are likely to experience water shortage events with higher intensity, duration, and frequency compared to the high-density pattern. Characterizing impacts of urban development patterns on future water shortage conditions is required for sustainable water management and smart urban growth and can help urban planners and water managers to develop an adaptive path to meet future water demand and decrease the vulnerability of municipal water supply systems to shortage.

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Climate Change and Changes in Compound Coastal‐Riverine Flooding Hazard Along the U.S. Coasts

Cited by 97 publications

References 86 publications

Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard

Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard

Effects of Climate Change on Natural-Caused Fire Activity in Western U.S. National Forests

Effects of Urban Development Patterns on Municipal Water Shortage

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