Climate change and coastal flooding in Metro Boston: impacts and adaptation strategies

Abstract

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change will increase storm surge height along the 825 km long coastline of Metro Boston, USA. Land at risk consists of urban waterfront with piers and armoring, residential areas with and without seawalls and revetments, and undeveloped land with either rock coasts or gently sloping beachfront and low-lying coastal marshes. Risk-based analysis shows that the cumulative 100 year economic impacts on developed areas from increased storm surge flooding depend heavily upon the adaptation response, location, and estimated sea level rise. Generally it is found that it is advantageous to use expensive structural protection in areas that are highly developed and less structural approaches such as floodproofing and limiting or removing development in less developed or environmentally sensitive areas.

Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modeling practices

“…The last column in Table 2 highlights that the assumption concerning the timing of protection (evolving versus lagged evolving where there is a 30-year time lag between income per capita and protection standard improvements) is quite relevant and can lead to very different impacts, especially in the low-growth heterogeneous scenario. Kirshen et al (2008) in the analysis of sea level rise and storm surge impacts on the Metro Boston Area (USA) make the point that adaptation also affects exposure and should be considered in risk analyses. Structural protection is more effective in highly developed areas whereas less developed areas should be protected with more environmental friendly measures.…”

“…Yohe (1991) outlines an accounting methodology aimed at quantifing the net benefit of protection for the US coastal area of Long Beach Island, NJ (economic vulnerability). Kirshen et al (2008) in the analysis of sea level rise and storm surge impacts on the Metro Boston Area (USA) makes the point that adaptation also affects exposure and should thus be considered in risk analyses. Structural protection is more effective in highly developed areas, whereas less developed areas should be protected with more environmental friendly measures.…”

Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding

“…Kleinosky et al (2007) reported on the relative role of SLR on future hurricane flooding along the mid-Atlantic coast of the USA, without consideration of potential hurricane intensification. These authors showed that flooding of critical facilities is expected to increase by 1% to 19% for major hurricanes when SLR is between 0.3 and 0.9 m. Kirshen et al (2008) considered the relative impact of SLR for nontropical storms around Boston, Massachusetts, again without consideration of storm intensification, and concluded flood probability would increase substantially with a 0.6-m SLR; specifically, these authors conclude that the present-day 1%-occurrence flood level was projected to become the 26%-occurrence flood level by 2100. Similar findings were reported by Cayan et al (2008) for the west coast of the U.S.…”

Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations Due to Disasters

“…One mechanism for doing this might be to strengthen the requirements under the existing National Flood Insurance Program to address repetitive-loss properties. Kirshen et al (2008) attempts to identify areas for which retreat might be preferable to other strategies (such as structural protection), and finds, not surprisingly, that retreat tends to be preferable in less densely developed areas.…”