Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland

Abstract

The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and several studies suggest that climate change is expected to increase food insecurity and poverty in many parts of the world. In this paper, we adopt a microeconometric approach to empirically estimate the impact of climate change-induced hikes in cereal prices on household welfare in Swaziland (also Kingdom of Eswatini). We do so first by econometrically estimating expenditure and price elasticities of five food groups consumed by households in Swaziland using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), based on data from the 2009/2010 Swaziland Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Second, we use the estimated expenditure and compensated elasticities from the AIDS model, food shares from the household survey, and food price projections developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to estimate the proportionate increase in income required to maintain the level of household utility that would have prevailed absent an increase in food prices. Our results show increases in cereal prices due to climate change are expected to double extreme poverty in urban areas and increase poverty in rural areas of the country to staggering levels - between 71 and 75%, compared to 63% before the price changes. Income transfers of between 17.5 and 25.4% of pre-change expenditures are needed to avoid the welfare losses.

Food Insecurity and Health Outcomes Other than Malnutrition in Southern Africa: A Descriptive Systematic Review

“…With regard to factors associated with FI, similar results have been reported for Africa and elsewhere, particularly in LMICs [66][67][68]. Besides poverty, climate change [66,67], rapid population growth [11], poor governance and political conflicts [11,68] have been highlighted as relevant determinants of FI.…”

“…With regard to factors associated with FI, similar results have been reported for Africa and elsewhere, particularly in LMICs [66][67][68]. Besides poverty, climate change [66,67], rapid population growth [11], poor governance and political conflicts [11,68] have been highlighted as relevant determinants of FI. For instance, climate change may affect food systems and FI in a number of ways ranging from direct effects on food production (e.g., variations in rainfall patterns leading to droughts or floods, vacillations in temperatures and variation in the length of growing seasons) to changes in markets, food prices, increased poverty and food supply chain infrastructure [6,67].…”

“…Besides poverty, climate change [66,67], rapid population growth [11], poor governance and political conflicts [11,68] have been highlighted as relevant determinants of FI. For instance, climate change may affect food systems and FI in a number of ways ranging from direct effects on food production (e.g., variations in rainfall patterns leading to droughts or floods, vacillations in temperatures and variation in the length of growing seasons) to changes in markets, food prices, increased poverty and food supply chain infrastructure [6,67]. The quality of governance (e.g., government effectiveness, political stability, rule of law, accountability) and targeted policies are critical for fostering an adequate environment, which is vital to all economic processes and investments, especially those related to enhancing national food and nutrition security, social protection and the pace of economic growth [11].…”

Entomological risk of African tick-bite fever (Rickettsia africae infection) in Eswatini

“…We conducted this study in the lowveld region of Eswatini. This region experiences mild, dry winters (8–26°C; 0-50mm) and hot, wet summers (15–33°C; 200-500mm) [ 39 – 41 ]. To quantify entomological risk over space, we selected 26 sites representing four common land uses of lowveld savanna grasslands in Eswatini (wildlife conservation reserves, cattle ranches, conservation ranches that maintain a mixture of cattle and game animals, and community Swazi Nation Lands near rural settlements often used for livestock grazing).…”

Climate Change, Poverty and Income Inequality Linkage: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

“…Following this is the study of Sam et al (2021) who adopted the micro econometric empirical analysis to analyze the effect of climate change on household welfare through the rising prices of cereal. Data on five food groups were gathered from the 2009/2010 Swaziland Household Income Expenditure Survey and was analyzed by the Ideal Demand System (AIDS).…”