Climate change and isoprene emissions from vegetation

Turner, David P.; Baglio, Joseph V.; Wones, Andrew G.; Pross, Derek; Vong, Richard J.; McVeety, B.D.; Phillips, Donald L.

doi:10.1016/0045-6535(91)90115-t

Cited by 33 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…For a given prediction of future temperature increases, the associated isoprene emission increase predicted by MEGAN is ∼40% higher than what would be predicted by previous studies (e.g., Turner et al, 1991;Sanderson et al, 2003;Wiedinmyer et al, 2006). This is because MEGAN includes algorithms (Eqs.…”

Section: Physical Climatecontrasting

confidence: 41%

“…They note that lower BVOC emissions during the last glacial maximum would significantly increase OH which could contribute to the low methane concentrations observed in ice core samples. Several studies have examined the response of global isoprene emission to potential future climate (Turner et al, 1991;Sanderson et al, 2003;Wiedinmyer et al, 2006). Turner et al predict that climateinduced landcover changes will result in a 25% increase in isoprene emissions while Sanderson et al and Wiedinmyer et al predict slight (∼5%) decreases in isoprene emission.…”

Section: Physical Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

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Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

et al. 2006

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Abstract. Reactive gases and aerosols are produced by terrestrial ecosystems, processed within plant canopies, and can then be emitted into the above-canopy atmosphere. Estimates of the above-canopy fluxes are needed for quantitative earth system studies and assessments of past, present and future air quality and climate. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) is described and used to quantify net terrestrial biosphere emission of isoprene into the atmosphere. MEGAN is designed for both global and regional emission modeling and has global coverage with ∼1 km 2 spatial resolution. Field and laboratory investigations of the processes controlling isoprene emission are described and data available for model development and evaluation are summarized. The factors controlling isoprene emissions include biological, physical and chemical driving variables. MEGAN driving variables are derived from models and satellite and ground observations. Tropical broadleaf trees contribute almost half of the estimated global annual isoprene emission due to their relatively high emission factors and because they are often exposed to conditions that are conducive for isoprene emission. The remaining flux is primarily from shrubs which have a widespread distribution. The annual global isoprene emission estimated with MEGAN ranges from about 500 to 750 Tg isoprene (440 to 660 Tg carbon) depending on the driving variables which include temperature, solar radiation, Leaf Area Index, and plant functional type. The global annual isoprene emission estimated using the standard driving variables is ∼600 Tg isoprene. Differences in driving variables result in emission estimates that differ by more than a factor of three for specific times and locations. It is difficult to evaluate isoCorrespondence to: A. Guenther (guenther@ucar.edu) prene emission estimates using the concentration distributions simulated using chemistry and transport models, due to the substantial uncertainties in other model components, but at least some global models produce reasonable results when using isoprene emission distributions similar to MEGAN estimates. In addition, comparison with isoprene emissions estimated from satellite formaldehyde observations indicates reasonable agreement. The sensitivity of isoprene emissions to earth system changes (e.g., climate and land-use) demonstrates the potential for large future changes in emissions. Using temperature distributions simulated by global climate models for year 2100, MEGAN estimates that isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two. This is considerably greater than previous estimates and additional observations are needed to evaluate and improve the methods used to predict future isoprene emissions.

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Section: Physical Climatecontrasting

confidence: 41%

Section: Physical Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

et al. 2006

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“…They predicted isoprene emission estimates for a current climate and land cover (representative of 1988), and further, potential land-cover changes that might occur under the precipitation and temperatures predicted by the output of four different GCMs simulated with a doubling of CO 2 . Turner et al (Turner et al 1991) estimated an increase in isoprene emissions from 323 to 379-408 Tg isoprene yr −1 with the predicted changed landscapes. More recently, Sanderson et al (Sanderson et al 2003) performed a similar study to this one, using emissions predicted with a dynamic global vegetation model that was coupled with a global chemical transport model.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Turner et al (Turner et al 1991) produced the first study of potential changes in global isoprene emissions driven by climate change. They predicted isoprene emission estimates for a current climate and land cover (representative of 1988), and further, potential land-cover changes that might occur under the precipitation and temperatures predicted by the output of four different GCMs simulated with a doubling of CO 2 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Biogenic Isoprene Emissions: How Might They Affect Regional and Global Atmospheric Chemistry?

et al. 2006

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Isoprene is emitted from vegetation to the atmosphere in significant quantities, and it plays an important role in the reactions that control tropospheric oxidant concentrations. As future climatic and land-cover changes occur, the spatial and temporal variations, as well as the magnitude of these biogenic isoprene emissions, are expected to change. This paper presents a study of the change in biogenic isoprene emissions that would result from both anthropogenic land-cover and climate-driven changes. Annual global isoprene * Corresponding author address: Christine Wiedinmyer, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 emissions were estimated to be 522 Tg yr −1 under current climatological and land-cover conditions. When climate-driven land-cover changes are predicted, but climate does not change, total global emissions did not change significantly, although regional impacts were important. However, the use of future temperature and land-cover drivers to estimate isoprene emissions produced a global estimate of 889 Tg yr −1 . Anthropogenic land-cover changes, such as urbanization and changes of natural vegetation to plantation forests, can also have substantial impacts on isoprene emissions (i.e., up to 717 Tg yr −1 , a 37% increase, when land-cover changes but temperature remains at current-day values). The Model for Ozone and Related Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2) was run with the different isoprene emission scenarios to simulate the potential changes in global atmospheric chemical composition. The simulated regional surface ozone concentrations changed as much as −9 to 55 ppbv under certain emission and climate scenarios. These results were used to evaluate changes in the ozone production chemistry under different emission scenarios. As expected, the impacts of changing isoprene emissions are regionally dependent, with large changes in China, the Amazon, and the United States.

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“…The table is exclusive in the sense that it lists only studies where in the case of isoprene, both light and temperature were considered as environmental constraints on emissions. Some earlier work (Turner et al, 1991;Mueller, 1992) used algorithms that varied isoprene emissions with temperature only. However, this approach is now known to be inadequate since isoprene in leaves of green plants is synthesized via light-dependent processes in the chloroplastic 1-deoxyxylulose-5-phosphate (DOXP) pathway that requires redox equivalents and ATP (Lichtenthaler et al, 1997).…”

Section: Sourcementioning

confidence: 99%

Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes)?

et al. 2008

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Abstract. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) are a chief uncertainty in calculating the burdens of important atmospheric compounds like tropospheric ozone or secondary organic aerosol, reflecting either imperfect chemical oxidation mechanisms or unreliable emission estimates, or both. To provide a starting point for a more systematic discussion we review here global isoprene and monoterpene emission estimates to-date. We note a surprisingly small variation in the predictions of global isoprene emission rate that is in stark contrast with our lack of process understanding and the small number of observations for model parameterisation and evaluation. Most of the models are based on similar emission algorithms, using fixed values for the emission capacity of various plant functional types. In some cases, these values are very similar but differ substantially in other models. The similarities with regard to the global isoprene emission rate would suggest that the dominant parameters driving the ultimate global estimate, and thus the dominant determinant of model sensitivity, are the specific emission algorithm and isoprene emission capacity. But the models also differ broadly with regard to their representation of net primary productivity, method of biome coverage determination and climate data. Contrary to isoprene, monoterpene estimates show significantly larger model-tomodel variation although variation in terms of leaf algorithm, emission capacities, the way of model upscaling, vegetation cover or climatology used in terpene models are comparable to those used for isoprene. From our summary of published studies there appears to be no evidence that the terrestrial modelling community has been any more successful in Correspondence to: A. Arneth (almut.arneth@nateko.lu.se) "resolving unknowns" in the mechanisms that control global isoprene emissions, compared to global monoterpene emissions. Rather, the proliferation of common parameterization schemes within a large variety of model platforms lends the illusion of convergence towards a common estimate of global isoprene emissions. This convergence might be used to provide optimism that the community has reached the "relief phase", the phase when sufficient process understanding and data for evaluation allows models' projections to converge, when applying a recently proposed concept. We argue that there is no basis for this apparent relief phase. Rather, we urge modellers to be bolder in their analysis, and to draw attention to the fact that terrestrial emissions, particularly in the area of biome-specific emission capacities, are unknown rather than uncertain.

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Climate change and isoprene emissions from vegetation

Cited by 33 publications

References 36 publications

Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature)

Future Changes in Biogenic Isoprene Emissions: How Might They Affect Regional and Global Atmospheric Chemistry?

Why are estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions so similar (and why is this not so for monoterpenes)?

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