Climate Change and Migration

Abstract

Climate change has significant impacts on human displacements. This chapter reviews the economics literature on climate change impacts on migration with an emphasis on the agricultural linkage. The empirical literature has documented very mixed results on climate change impacts on migration. To partly resolve the inconsistencies and shed light on future studies, a stylized theoretical model is proposed to illustrate the complexity raised by two key factors, liquidity constraint and climate expectation. The chapter connects the theoretical discussion with the existing literature to further elaborate on the important roles of these two factors. This chapter also makes a few suggestions for future research.

Climatic shocks and internal migration - Evidence from 442 million personal records in 64 countries

“…Almost mirroring these results is the finding that migration decreases in the regions experiencing negative precipitation shocks, but this pattern is specific to regions located in countries in the low-income group. Our findings clearly lend support to the argument on the role of liquidity constraint on migration, that is worsening climatic conditions can reduce household income necessary for covering migration costs and consequently suppress potential migration (Cattaneo and Peri 2016;Cui and Feng 2020;Gray and Mueller 2012b;Gray and Wise 2016). When lowincome countries experience higher precipitation than the average this may increase agricultural production and consequently generate extra income for travel and relocation costs.…”

A real-options analysis of climate change and international migration

“…Instead, the results are in line with the notion of "trapped populations" raised by recent literature (e.g., Cattaneo and Peri 2016;Beine and Parsons 2017;Gröschl and Steinwachs 2017;Cui and Feng 2020): Particularly in developing countries, individuals are unable to move due to liquidity constraints, which are likely aggravated by negative impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity.…”

“…For middle-income countries, no effects of temperature and precipitation anomalies on migration rates can be observed.I generally find no evidence of the threshold effects suggested by the real-options framework. Rather, consistent with recent literature (e.g.,Cattaneo and Peri 2016;Beine and Parsons 2017;Gröschl and Steinwachs 2017;Cui and Feng 2020), the findings suggest that in low-income countries, individuals' migration response is hampered by the existence of liquidity constraints. These are likely to become more binding due to climate change-induced decreases in agricultural productivity.A key implication of my findings is that instead of attempting to deter migration from areas increasingly affected by the impacts of climate change, policymakers should focus on both fostering migration and assisting "trapped" populations by facilitating alternative adaptation strategies.…”

A Real-Options Analysis of Climate Change and International Migration

“…Instead, the results are in line with the notion of "trapped populations" raised by recent literature (e.g., Cattaneo and Peri 2016;Beine and Parsons 2017;Gröschl and Steinwachs 2017;Cui and Feng 2020): Particularly in developing countries, individuals are unable to move due to liquidity constraints, which are likely aggravated by negative impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity.…”

“…For middle-income countries, no effects of temperature and precipitation anomalies on migration rates can be observed.I generally find no evidence of the threshold effects suggested by the real-options framework. Rather, consistent with recent literature (e.g.,Cattaneo and Peri 2016;Beine and Parsons 2017;Gröschl and Steinwachs 2017;Cui and Feng 2020), the findings suggest that in low-income countries, individuals' migration response is hampered by the existence of liquidity constraints. These are likely to become more binding due to climate change-induced decreases in agricultural productivity.A key implication of my findings is that instead of attempting to deter migration from areas increasingly affected by the impacts of climate change, policymakers should focus on both fostering migration and assisting "trapped" populations by facilitating alternative adaptation strategies.…”